Elimination is an ambition not a reality

Seven days ago, the island prepared for the Liberation weekend buoyed by the latest relaxation of lockdown rules as the amount of time allowed for exercise was doubled to four hours.

The news came on the Thursday, the last gathering of political and health leaders on that now-familiar stage at Beau Sejour.

A week on and the expectation is high that the island is due further steps to freedom. In that time the number of active cases has fallen from 15 to just eight.

There have been no new cases for a fortnight.

And a new word has entered the Covid-19 lexicon: elimination. Is it possible to drive the coronavirus out of the Bailiwick altogether?

As far as can be told there are just a handful of cases in Guernsey. Outside of the eight confirmed cases perhaps there are some asymptomatic cases, or even a sickly individual or two who is determined that what they are suffering from is no more than a heavy cold.

No one can know for certain.

Regardless, it should be a relief to all that the numbers have been forced so low. Firstly, it reduces the threat to vulnerable islanders. Secondly, it enables the lockdown release to be speeded up.

It also offers up the tantalising prospect of a Bailiwick bubble, where islanders can enjoy relatively normal (if socially distanced) lives within the confines of the four main islands.

The economy would benefit greatly, as would the mental health of islanders able to travel safely even a short distance.

That, though, is a big step. And one the other islands would have to be comfortable with.

For, just as few islanders would fancy opening their borders to the UK while it remains among the worst 10 countries in the world for new cases, Sark, Alderney and Herm might prefer to keep their island sanctuaries hermetically sealed.

Meanwhile, elimination remains an ambition, not a reality, for Guernsey.

For each of the remaining eight cases represents an individual and their family for whom the threat of Covid-19 remains all too real.