The choice: to thrive or simply survive

A £300m. nosedive in the economy – equivalent to the loss of 10% of the workforce in just one year.

Three times as deep a recession for 2020 as inflicted by the 2008 global financial crisis.

Public finances to take a £190m. hit this year through lost earnings and increased costs while revenues in 2021 could be down by £40m.

Areas of working life have been devastated, especially in hospitality, aviation, retail and construction. More than 8 out of 10 self-employed workers could not work fully during lockdown and 1 in 10 of the entire workforce (3,000 people) have claimed benefits.

The jobless total has tripled to 1,000 people.

Bad as it is, it could be worse. The finance sector has shielded the island from the worst of the storm.

The OECD puts the potential damage to the UK at minus 11.5% of GDP. France and Italy are not far behind. A second wave would notch that up to minus 14%.

These are unprecedented numbers, which call for an unprecedented response. Unlike in 2008, none of the major nations is talking austerity – that would take too long and, ultimately, cost more.

So instead of battening down they will print money and flood their economies with investment.

Guernsey cannot print money, but it can draw on its strong finances to invest heavily. By doing so it can define its future.

For those losses of hundreds of millions over the coming decade are just one possible scenario.

In early May Public Health warned the island that it could be months before the island emerged from lockdown. Phases 3 and 4 might have taken eight weeks each to get through.

Yet here we are, on the ‘brink’ of Phase 5 before June is even halfway through. It is a remarkable turnaround.

With a similar spirit of #GuernseyTogether the economic future can be changed. With the right stimulus the island can improve its fortunes year after year until, experts suggest, the economy is £1.4bn larger in 2030 than if we do nothing.

The choice is between bold optimism and cautious pessimism. To thrive or simply survive.

It will define this decade.