Next step out of the bubble is the toughest

Returning to normality within the Bailiwick so swiftly is a remarkable achievement and one that should be savoured.

The next step, however, will not be so simple.

Reopening the borders is in fresh focus given the French government’s indications that it is progressively opening up from July, while ferry companies and airlines are all on standby to relaunch their services. We cannot stay in our bubble indefinitely, looking out as countries around Europe feel it is safe to open their borders.

As welcome as the staycation campaign is, for example, there is simply not enough of a market there to sustain our hotels.

Our shops, restaurants and visitor attractions all benefit from the usual influx, as do families and friends.

Our businesses community is eager to get moving.

The timing of when to burst the Bailiwick bubble will be much more contentious than the lifting of restrictions so far, which has been backed with plain evidence of there be no local cases for so long.

The example of a couple being let out of quarantine in New Zealand and subsequently testing positive for Covid-19, or the re-emergence of cases in Beijing or localised outbreaks in Germany, show how important it is to have robust procedures in place and rapid track and trace abilities.

Guernsey may have been leading the way out of the localised lockdown and is rightly proud of its elimination strategy, but it cannot be at the front of the charge when it comes to free movement. There is an evident tension and much more nuanced decision making for the Civil Contingencies Authority over when phase five becomes phase six.

In the Exit Framework it recognises that ideally there would be a vaccine, but that is unlikely to be seen this year despite some promising signs from early human trials. The alternative is for community transmission of the virus to be under control in destination countries – without eradication, that ultimately is a political judgement call and one of the toughest yet.