More data required on Covid effects

Even the jobless statistics published today give only a blurred picture. The number of people unemployed has remained steady in August at just under 700 but the longer-term trend since June has been good, falling away from a peak of 1,600.

It may be that the number of unemployed has plateaued at about 200 more than the pre-pandemic months, or it may be that there are seasonal factors at play such as the return of university students.

It is a frustrating reality that a clearer view of how the economy is functioning in the immediate aftermath of lockdown will come only once it is in the rear-view mirror.

GDP and tax-take data will take time to collate and publish and, as in 2008, the scale of the recession Guernsey has entered will not be fully understood until after its peak.

Perhaps it is just as well.

Encouragingly, the president of the Development & Planning Authority sees green shoots in the construction industry. After the shutdown of building sites across the island in spring, a return to work for one of the island’s bellwether industries is an important confidence booster.

When the new States gets to work in a month’s time it will need as much information as possible about which parts of the economy are struggling and which remain in need of state aid.

For Revive and Thrive to work, the new Assembly will also need to quickly get a handle on where the island is doing well. Such profitable hotspots, probably in the finance industry, need to be recognised and supported.

Goldilocks regulation will be part of that, applying just the right amount of control without imposing undue costs and impediments on businesses working hard to do their bit for the recovery.

The assumption is that, despite its semi-permeable borders, Guernsey may well be faring better than most western economies.

It would be comforting, however, to see concrete figures published which support that hypothesis.