Island was not voting for a president
WIN or lose, it is dangerous to read too much into election results.
Candidates and media pundits like to pore over the numbers and declare concrete reasons why 25,000 voters acted as they did.
Was it the two critical reports on Home Affairs that did for Mary Lowe? Or the unpopular population management system? The failed attempt to oust Victoria Oliver? Or something else entirely?
With Education president Matt Fallaize it seems clearer. Those who hung green ribbons from their cars were unlikely to vote for the figurehead of the two-school system.
But what part did the botched appointment of the head of curriculum and standards play?
No one knows.
It is equally rash for Deputy Gavin St Pier to claim a mandate for chief minister based on being poll-topper.
Impressive though his support is, how many voters saw the election in the same ‘presidential’ light as Deputy St Pier?
His assured handling of the pandemic response undoubtedly played a part but the job of chief minister is bigger than that. By this time next year the island would hope that the imminent threat of Covid-19 is, if not in the past, waning.
More important surely is his eight-year tenure in charge of the economy, which was finally emerging from its black hole and starting to accrue a surplus.
Add to that his handling of Brexit and various assaults on the island’s independence and he has a strong claim to be the best candidate for the job.
But it is his record in office that affords him that privilege, not 13,927 (recounted) votes.
Deputy St Pier should be wary of linking polling numbers with roles in the States. By the same logic the task of choosing the five members of Policy & Resources, heads of six principal committees and the five in charge of bodies such as Scrutiny and the States’ Trading board is easy – just go down the list of those elected one by one.
It would mean seven new deputies would get a baptism of fire with tough new jobs. It would also put in charge some old hands who have shown they are not up to the task.
The right person for the job is not always popular.