Economy and public health in tandem
AS THE grim realities of a Covid winter hit home in the UK it is hard to understand those who continue to question the island’s pandemic response.
The chief minister yesterday rightly urged islanders not to gloat. The profound misery of businesses closing, jobs lost, students on lockdown and intensive care beds filling up fast is displayed nightly on the news.
It is important, nevertheless, to recognise the benefits the island’s sacrifices have earned. Not just an absence of masks, nor the ability to gather in large groups for parties and concerts. Not even the chance to hug friends and family without fear of the consequences.
It is broader than that. Within these shores, most of us can live a normal life.
The cost is high. The airport and harbours are quiet, hotels are suffering and some business deals are being lost.
But there is no cost-free option. The island’s economy is heading for a 6.4% contraction in 2020 with a 4.8% pick-up predicted for next year.
That sounds bad until the UK figure of 10%+ contraction is taken into account. Or a 7.5% drop in Jersey with just a 3% recovery.
Would restaurants be full for Tennerfest if the border control were relaxed and Covid seeding started? Would cafes, bars, cinemas and gyms welcome masks, two-metre distancing and contact registers?
Would the jobless total be recovering as fast?
Those who question the restrictions want it all. They have the luxury of imagining easier travel and reduced quarantine without cases being imported. If proved wrong they will not be the ones to pick up the pieces.
As the prevalence of the disease soars in jurisdictions across Europe and the US, governments seem powerless either to control infections or to keep jobs and businesses afloat.
In that light, the Civil Contingencies Authority’s cautious approach looks the right one. They asked us to trust them, and it has paid off.
There will be many islanders nervous today about the election of a new chief minister and a wholesale political change of that trusted team.
The lack of compliance in the UK after multiple U-turns is not about the science. It is about trust and judgement, earned and proven over time.
We should value what we have more.