On-island infections seed change in mood

In May, the trajectory was clear. Within a week, four cases had become none and the Bailiwick was able to paint rainbows on the hospital and declare itself free of all known (C19) infections.

The islands would maintain that proud record for 130 days, even as lockdown restrictions were eased.

Five months ago we were in a confident mood. A survey showed that most people in Guernsey believed normal life would resume within three to six months.

There was good reason to be cheerful. A trusted team at the CCA was in place and overall infection rates had tumbled from a peak of more than 160 active cases in mid-April to less than 10 a month later.

What this island of optimists had not been factored in was a long and difficult winter as the pandemic made its fightback.

While April’s numbers put this week’s mini-cluster of Covid-related cases into some perspective, there is justification for a raised alert level.

Public Health has always been clear that it is on-island seeding that concerns it most. Infections among inbound travellers are well understood and, so long as quarantine rules are followed to the letter, should be contained.

The identification of an ‘index’ case with no identifiable source is worrying.

In an island which has forgotten the discipline of social distancing and where large numbers of people are gathering regularly in pubs, concerts and house parties a single unmonitored infection can spread quickly.

In that light, the identification of three more linked cases is a positive not a negative. It shows the test and trace system is fully functional.

Nerves should be calmed further not just by last night’s briefing by Dr Nicola Brink but today’s first public appearance of the new Civil Contingencies Authority.

Originally scheduled for Tuesday, the meeting was quickly brought forward by four days.

In the current environment and with social media overheating with speculation it was a good move.