Small margins will determine coming months

Six days ago, the Manx authorities identified a small cluster of two infected people. From today, the island will be in a three-week circuit-breaker lockdown.

Arguably, the Manx border has been even tighter than this Bailiwick’s for some months as it is closed to non-residents.

The Isle of Man and Guernsey both tightened up quarantine restrictions further on 22 December in response to the new variant of the Covid virus.

The ‘mistake’ made, if it can be called that, was for the Isle of Man not to insist on a 13th-day Covid test for those already in isolation as well as for new arrivals.

Two people from one household are said to have followed the rules but emerged after two weeks still infectious.

How the next few months unfold will depend on such small margins.

It will be 17 days this Friday since the last island briefing. Much has changed in that time.

For with the Manx border breached and the UK thrust into lockdown as new cases top 60,000 a day the advance of the new variant poses the clearest threat to island life for some months.

Questions naturally arise. Should this Bailiwick tighten its borders further and, like the Isle of Man, strongly advise against all travel and warn those who leave that they might not be able to return?

How long before the Oxford vaccine is approved for use in the Bailiwick and are supplies already here or waiting on States approval?

From today, the first cohort of people who got their first jab of the Pfizer vaccine in December will be due their second dose. Another batch of that vaccine is due to be here by Monday.

Is all that going to plan?

At present, 1.55% of the island population has had at least one Pfizer jab. When the Oxford vaccine is ready for use will it be given in the same way or will the second jab be held back?

Public Health will no doubt address these questions and more tomorrow. Islanders hungry for information should tune in.