Stage 1 is an invitation, not an obligation

Unless there is a worrying flurry of new infections, Guernsey will join the rest of the Bailiwick in Stage 1 of the recovery from Monday.

It has been a challenging four weeks, not least because of the rapid and unnerving explosion in case numbers and the sad loss of one islander.

When the chairman of the Civil Contingencies Authority took his seat at Beau Sejour on Saturday 23 January it was clear that the second lockdown had to be both rapid and complete.

Deputy Ferbrache hoped the island could come out of lockdown as quickly as possible but accepted it would need to be in place ‘for some time’.

Four unrelated cases had been identified, none of whom had been travelling.

Less than 12 hours after the test results had been confirmed, Dr Brink already feared such a rapid spread meant it was the new variant.

And so it proved, as active cases quickly leapt from the single-figure totals Guernsey was familiar with, to more than 100 within the first week and over 300 a week after that.

It was clear from early on that this Bailiwick lockdown would be no 25-day circuit-breaker along the lines experienced by the Isle of Man.

There, a small cluster of cases had quickly been contained to the point where the Manx authorities were able to enjoy a 20-day run with no unexplained community seeding before coming straight out of lockdown.

In Guernsey, with no masks or social distancing and life continuing as normal while large public events went on, the variant had been able to get a strong grip, despite the speed with which restrictions were imposed.

In that light the CCA is right to be cautious before rushing to end restrictions.

Islanders will look at current case numbers and regular, if limited, unexplained infections and make their own choice about whether to bubble, work or socialise from Monday.

Stage 1 is an invitation to relax a little, not an instruction. It is up to each household to decide whether to take up that offer.