Welcome signs of the ‘vaccine effect’

Data from the UK has confirmed it is doing just as expected – a single dose of either coronavirus vaccine being used reduces the risk of hospitalisation by 80% in older people.

The UK Health secretary Matt Hancock said that this points the way to a very different world. This is the clearest sign yet of the ‘vaccine effect’ that is needed. Public Health England also expects the vaccine to work even better in young people.

Lockdowns have been effective in controlling the spread of Covid-19, but they come at a cost to mental and physical wellbeing as well the economy.

They are not a sustainable answer and there is a growing need to shift the dial to a post-lockdown response.

The path is not smooth.

The Brazilian variant, and others that will follow, will test the tools that have already been established, not least how effective testing and tracing is in controlling outbreaks.

The Isle of Man has gone back into a three-week lockdown after a flare-up linked to a ferry crew member. They had hoped to avoid the move but showed last time how quickly you can get through to a full reopening.

Suppression and control has to replace talk of eradication as the goal if we are to avoid untold damage to our society. Until the vaccine programme is rolled out further, the trigger for lockdown measures is not absolute Covid case numbers, but about whether there is community transition that cannot be traced back to a source and controlled.

We have more options now, allied to a greater understanding of the virus.

Guernsey is cautiously unravelling itself from its second lockdown, beginning with the schools reopening. Alderney is rightly shifting through the gears faster and could be free of all social distancing measures in a week.

There is progress.

The vaccination programme and the positive evidence emerging from it should be celebrated.