Need for homes and workers never more real

By any measure, government’s targets to increase the number of units – just 83 were built last year – has failed to contain prices, increase affordability or even hit its own targets. And now, post-lockdown, the housing market is booming.

The scale of the problem, however, is greater than readily appreciated. Guernsey has something of a fertility crisis. Women are statistically having 1.5 babies, significantly below the natural replacement rate. Without immigration, the population is in steady decline.

Yet, the island needs to attract people here because its workforce is also predicted to fall below 30,000 in little more than 10 years. The effect on tax take will be considerable.

The more shocking statistic here, however, is is the dependency ratio, increasing from .55 now to .63 in 2049. Put simply, that means for every 100 islanders, just 37 will be working and paying the taxes to support the dependent 63 schoolchildren and OAPs identified by the ratio. And that is after allowing for the increase in pension age.

Without encouraging younger workers to the island, which implies well paid jobs and readily available, affordable accommodation, Guernsey has a bleak future based on worsening skill shortages, higher taxes and deteriorating public services.

Before the pandemic, the cost of housing was already encouraging some to leave the island – or not return after university – and the current boom in prices and availability will reinforce the feeling of hopelessness for Generation Rent.

They have reason to feel let down. Successive States reports have revealed diminishing owner-occupation rates, rising house prices and build targets hopelessly missed.

Despite all the fine words, providing affordable – or even enough – housing has never been a priority for government. The Covid crisis, damaged public finances and a flawed planning process will further push home ownership even further away for many.