Hard to find shelter from a perfect storm

Feels a bit like a perfect storm. With no easy way to find even temporary shelter.

As Guernsey Housing Association chief executive Steve Williams says, his sector of the market is unable to react quickly to the pressures Guernsey has seen in the past 12 months and beyond. And it appears that no-one else can or will do anything else quickly either, even if they knew what to do.

A half-a-million pounds average property price will make some homeowners whoop for joy. Many aspiring for home ownership will despair that they will ever be able to get there.

Property sales and huge demands for rental properties are seen as an issue prompted in part by the attraction of Guernsey during the past 15 months of Covid, which appears to have prompted temporary returns, permanent returns, and newcomers to the island.

Not only has Guernsey been seen as a safe haven, but as something of a hotbed of economic activity, which has further fuelled the house price boom.

Without significant government intervention over the years – the last time the States built first-time properties for islanders to buy was some 30 years ago – the housing market has gone through periods of boom and ‘bust’ (perhaps more accurately read as a gentle slowdown) in line with economic cycles.

But as Guernsey now also wrestles with concerns about too many situations vacant and not enough people – potentially influenced by Covid and/or Brexit – to fill them, it adds a further complication to a situation which is already difficult enough.

The hospitality sector particularly has concerns that if it is unable to bring in people to staff what is hoped will be a busy tourism season, it will struggle. But the pressures caused by increasing population will cause further overheating in the property market.

This time it appears that the island cannot afford to wait and rely on traditional market forces to resolve the housing ‘crisis’. Relying on an economic slowdown will do no-one any favours.