A dress rehearsal with an audience

The eventual outcome of the tax review debate – which, mercifully, will not be dogged by amendments due to its ‘green paper’ status – will, with no exaggeration, potentially change the future fortunes of the island.

Will late September 2021 be the time the States finally bowed to what might be seen as ‘inevitable’ GST and set those wheels in motion? Will members once again – and in line with the majority of manifesto pledges – reject the ‘easy option’, but inevitably leave government with far fewer options to proceed? Or, if the vote is in any way close, would the tax review sub-group, and Policy & Resources, take the decision to pursue a GST again and decide to do a better job of selling the idea?

The added intrigue for the political follower is we do not know if this debate, like many others in recent months, will follow party lines. We know the Guernsey Party (the handful of them left) will reject GST. But their party leader won’t – can’t, given he’s presenting the proposal.

We have no idea what the ‘other side’ of the House might think and do (aside from the inevitable election-time commitments against a GST, of course). And if deputies have picked up one thing from the (albeit limited) debate on this issue over the summer months, it will surely have been the message that doing nothing is not an option. Forget allegiances to low-tax and small-spending government – relying on possibly mythical savings alone amounts to relatively small beer in the scheme of things (not that they should not be pursued) and won’t change the demographics at the root of the problem.

Last-minute briefings from P&R and a late publicity push from the committee demonstrate obvious concerns that the report hasn’t taken root with the public or, perhaps more importantly, fellow deputies.

That is of some concern, but while this debate will almost certainly have serious implications, the real vote will follow next summer. However, this looks like being one dress rehearsal that deserves a wider audience – though not a sell out.