A chance to make progress by air and sea

As the airline gears up for a busy half-term holiday period, safe in the knowledge that the States has recapitalised its debts and secured its future, the airline hopes to start to be able to look forward with confidence and can look back at how Covid ‘helped’ the airline to clock up some £36m. of its accumulated £63m. debt. For all that Guernsey can claim to have had a relatively ‘good’ pandemic, that is one bleeding wound all could have done without.

Meanwhile, the Committee for Economic Development is currently looking at how the island can enhance its air and sea connections.

And there, it is possible that Covid could have actually done the committee a bit of a favour.

With travel to and from the islands restarting from effectively a zero base, and with two long-term competitors now sharing a number of routes, including Southampton, Birmingham and Exeter, with a fair wind and a spirit of co-operation, it could be that Guernsey’s aviation needs can be rebuilt in a more sustainable way which allows for two airlines to run break-even, if not hugely profitable, services.

Experts predict that leisure travel will lead the recovery in aviation, as happened after 9/11 and the global financial crisis, and current Guernsey patterns seem to bear this out, with Aurigny’s European adventures leading the way.

Consultants from McKinsey believe that business travel will only be back at 80% of pre-pandemic levels by 2024, which is going to lead to further change in the aviation sector in terms of pricing and the kind of flights that are offered.

Condor too has had to effectively relaunch its services and, while passenger travel rebuilds relatively slowly, has altered its schedules to reflect levels of demand. In the medium term, that could also influence the ferry operator’s return to full schedules which is aimed at best-serving the islands, its own constraints, and the environment.

It’s a major piece of work for a States committee to try to influence, but there has rarely been a better opportunity to find a route map which works for all.