Torn between Monaco and Cornwall

It, too, needed a long-term vision for its place in the world and effectively to decide whether it wanted to become a Cornwall or a Monaco, he said.

‘We either cut public expenditure big time or we have to generate income,’ Michael Oliver told the Institute of Directors. ‘I doubt that, even in its heyday, finance could have actually paid the bill that is coming down the tracks.’

Guernsey is already there. The bill has arrived. Not by accident, but by the design of this and previous States Assemblies. However they omitted any ideas on how to pay for their policy ambitions.

Quite how islanders will pick up the tab for this extravagance remains unclear – Tax Review II should provide some clarity – but the evidence is there. Guernsey is currently living beyond its means.

This gives greater urgency to informed calls for politicians to engage with islanders on what good does indeed look like and on what direction Guernsey intends to go.

It is not, as some believe, as simple as being anti-growth or pro-population increases. The starting point is sustainability, and the public services we currently have are already unaffordable. Cuts, revenue growth or tax rises are the immediate options.

Longer term, deputy chief minister Heidi Soulsby has already acknowledged that the Government Work Plan needs, next year, ‘to get a more focused strategic direction on big issues, e.g. population management [and] climate change’.

Monaco vs Cornwall is useful shorthand for the choices ahead. The reality is far more nuanced, however, and the consequences for jumping off the growth carousel profound in terms of individual wealth, job opportunities, connectivity and quality of services like health and education.

That said, the debate on this vital area is long overdue. It needs to start now and, above all, to be properly informed.