Runway debate is not about Aurigny
THANKS to a Scrutiny Management hearing last month, we know that Economic Development is very likely to recommend that this States extends Guernsey’s runway. If so, it is equally likely that will trigger the usual ‘over my dead body’ response from the traditional quarters.
In other words, Economic Development needs not only to make a compelling business case in favour of the work, it also has to consider how best to sell its proposal to a pretty sceptical island.
For those with expert knowledge of the situation, including independent consultants Frontier Economics, the case to extend is overwhelming. The tragedy here is that the enhancement wasn’t carried out 10 years ago when Lagan Construction was improving the runway surface.
Today’s difficulty is that any decision will, by definition, be taken by non-experts (irrespective of the knowledge feeding the committee’s proposals) so a key economic enabler for the island's future is hostage to emotion and misinformation.
Central here is Aurigny. A longer runway means enhanced operational safety and better weather resilience, but opponents will present it as a death sentence for Guernsey’s ‘national’ carrier. Nonsense, but the critics prefer emotion to fact.
No matter the affection Aurigny, rightly, is held in, it is inherently inefficient and expensive. As a small airline, its management costs are disproportionately high, and its fragmented fleet costly to maintain and operate – it’s partly why it was making significant losses even before Covid.
Regarded dispassionately, Guernsey needs the lowest fares possible, lifeline links to London, network resilience and the marketing clout of a major carrier to promote the island. Add a runway fit for the world’s most popular passenger jet to use fully laden and Aurigny could continue to hold the Gatwick slots but outsource operations to others.
It was an option acknowledged by the previous Policy Council but never pursued, an oversight given Aurigny CEO’s recent observation that he'd not seen a small airline with so many aircraft types.
When it happens, debate on a proper runway needs to be well-informed and with decision-makers focused on what the island needs – not on their own preconceptions.