Jobless figures mask economic challenges

During the second and third phases of the 2020 lockdown, the numbers of people unemployed were in the region of 1,600. By the end of that year the jobless total was comfortably under 1,000, but it bounced back up again at the time of the 2021 lockdown. At that point more than 600 new unemployment claims were made in one month.

By the end of March this year, unemployment was at its lowest level since December 2018. The number of people out of work in fell to 295 at the end of last month – a reduction of 12 from the previous month. Those in work and claiming additional financial support was also marginally down.

The number of jobs being advertised at the Job Centre was down 10% on the previous month.

The States has talked about a V-shaped economic recovery from Covid but the Guernsey version has clearly combined with pent-up demand to create conditions where taxes may be pouring in, but the island is struggling to cope in many other areas. If we had more people to do the work, then tax receipts could be even higher. But that brings its own significant challenges, not least housing.

Six months ago almost to the day, senior States committees talked enthusiastically about the review of the island’s population and immigration policy. The policy was going to respond quickly to the island’s changing economic, social and environmental demands, and support recovery.

We have heard little since. It looked at the time that the focus was directed more at issues complicated by Brexit and Covid, and the particular crisis point at the time was the island’s hospitality sector.

There has always been a delicate balance to strike between allowing immigration and being able to service it.

But at a time when Jersey has revealed its population grew from net inward migration by 330 people a year from 2011, Guernsey continues to struggle to find the optimum approach to combine the economy and population, with its associated challenges.