We're in a population pickle

A look at the latest population statistics, published yesterday, gives lie to those memories of how good Guernsey used to be.

For Guernsey is now the place where if not nothing, then certainly the population never changes.

You can claim that our population is at an all-time high – but it's just a few hundred people more than it was 10 years ago. This at a time when the Jersey population increased by more than 5,000 people, a 5.5% rise, following double-digit growth which it enabled in the previous decade.

Some will say that Guernsey has got it right and call this numbers game a real success for government and the island, restraining the need for over-development. However P&R’s demographic timebomb looms large within the figures. Deaths now consistently exceed births every year – a turnaround of some 200 over the decade, almost entirely made up of a slump in the birth rate.

Despite the claims of all the young people leaving the island, emigration has halved over the decade, and equally immigration has slumped too. Over the past five years, we have a population growing slowly, solely due to those arriving in the island. The figures also show that six out of 10 of those will leave within five years.

Some will welcome the conclusion, but the island’s growth potential just cannot be realised with this set of demographics. However the alternative, as currently presented, is to tax ourselves into submission while growing a public service just to look after each other. The figures reveal just what a pickle we’ve got ourselves into – with no obvious way out.