The road well travelled

DEAR READER, we appear to have reached a crossroads and now have to choose which road we should take to the future. To the left is the downhill path which leads to a gently declining island with an ageing population clinging on to the memories of a lost rural idyll. To the right is a steep incline but it seems to be paved with gold and it leads to a buoyant and growing land packed full of young people on their bicycles riding happily between the skyscrapers and glass and steel palaces of commerce.

Deputy Roffey’s plea to avoid growth which would increase the population is a very attractive proposition. I have to admit to feeling a sense of loss when another field is lost to development or I spot a house that has lost its family-size garden to be replaced by houses.

My family switch off when I’m in a car with them and start my repetitive monologue which goes ‘I remember when that was a field....’. The problem is Mr Roffey grieves for the open spaces of the 1950s, or more likely the 1960s given his tender age, but wants the States of Guernsey to offer 21st-century services and gold-plated ones at that.

It will be very easy for us to take the downward path because we basically have to do nothing and just go with the flow. Deputy Roffey can still call for tip-top services funded by keeping the elderly productively in work and increasing taxes paid by the young and old alike.

And he will succeed in his aim of taking us back to 1950. The roads will be almost car-free, house prices will be much lower and there will be a significant oversupply in the housing market because, eventually, the population will drop back to 40,000 or so.

Life for those in work and/or grasping the good life with both hands will be great. There is nothing wrong with reducing the wealth of Guernsey if those who are lucky enough to remain are happy to live like those in rural Cornwall. Perhaps we could even get back to a cottage and a few vergees being the Guernsey Dream.

A flight to Southampton two or three times a week will suffice for air links and a weekly mail boat perhaps will be enough given we will be growing much of our food in our back gardens.

Deputy Parkinson’s preferred route is a completely different kettle of fish. The path is steep, steeper than the ’Terres, and all we have on which to get up it is an old pushang with no gears. It is the greatest challenge of our lifetime and we know if we make it, then the rewards will be worth the effort.

We know that the city of gold at the top of the mountain is a wonderful place. It is dynamic, vibrant and a magnet for the young. The very air itself is pure and particulate free and of course, its streets are paved with avocados.

The problem is, we know that few who take this path ever make it to the place of their dreams. The effort becomes too great or the chain falls off the bike. The fug of politics can lead the traveller to lose his way, resulting in dire consequences.

Sometimes the traveller is distracted by mirages and heads into a waterless desert and the investment, hopes and dreams join the other sun-bleached bones of the unlucky adventurers who preceded them.

Should Deputy Parkinson eventually reach the peak and build his New Guernsey, it is possible that we won’t like it and will regret not having freewheeled with Deputy Roffey.

We will however have revitalised the eastern seaboard and our great port will once again be an exciting trade hub. New offices and shops will be filled by our new residents and we may be able to let octogenarians retire and enjoy a few restful years in their 24th floor apartment on the south-coast cliffs.

If we build it they will come (hopefully).

It is worth noting that the harbour building project did revitalise the economy the last time it was tried. I can’t see any reason why if it worked in the 19th century why it wouldn’t in the 21st. Can you?

My personal view is that if Deputy Parkinson is the political genius that the great Daniel de Lisle Brock was and if he commands the respect and loyalty of the States of Guernsey, as did Daniel, then his scheme could work. If.

Oh look, there’s a third path which looks as though it has been well travelled. It is the path that was favoured by the Three Princes of Serendip. No one knows where it leads and no one knows what they will find along the way. It twists and turns and it’s impossible to see what’s around the corner. But there is always something around every corner even if it is difficult to know what it is.

Many travellers on this path will see the wonders but not be able to appreciate or exploit them through lack of knowledge or imagination. If we choose this path, and generally this is the path chosen by the generations before us, then our minds must be open for opportunity.

If we could really plan our economic future, why did the States of Guernsey not prepare for the rise of social media before it actually existed? Because Facebook et al were not planned, they were stumbled upon on the path to Serendip.

Did we plan in the 1920s for a finance industry and start building Admiral Park? No. We found finance on the road to Serendip.

I suggest we have faith in serendipity for our future and that the States needs to focus on establishing the skills, infrastructure and funding of our next industry which we haven’t yet stumbled upon.

Plus sending out a strong message to travellers that we are just the place to help them make sense of anything they happen to stumble upon along the way.

Here’s to a successful journey. Serendip or Bust.