Hats going in the ring
With more than half the Assembly confirming they plan to run in April's general election, a number of people have emerged from outside the States willing to face the electorate.
With more than half the Assembly confirming they plan to run in April's general election, a number of people have emerged from outside the States willing to face the electorate.
Accountant Gavin St Pier, Advocate Chris Green, teaching union representative Caroline Bowker and, stepping in for the second time as 'the young candidate', there is Lee Van Katwyk – and the list goes on.
Those who succeed have a much tougher task next term than this.
For this Assembly has managed to dodge or at least pass on some key decisions – the road traffic strategy, the waste plant, the future of the corporate tax strategy.
The next States is also likely to inherit a review of the system of government, public sector pension reform, the implementation of the population policy and reform of Guernsey's education system – including revisiting the primary school closures and, potentially, student loans.
Now think of the economic backdrop – a floundering European situation – and the need not to spend the savings expected from the financial transformation programme if the deficit is to be dealt with.
Who will want to be here in four years' time looking at a States still spending more than it receives from the public with a litany of broken promises of efficiency savings and cost-cutting?
However much the latest class wants to pat themselves on the back for a job well done, they always had the luxury of spending savings not yet achieved to give something back to their electorate.
They will be judged, as each Assembly is, at the ballot box. Only two incumbents – Wendy Morgan and Brian de Jersey – fell last time.
That casualty count could easily be surpassed this time if the right candidates put themselves in the running.
For some, it is now a time of reflection.
After eight years, four of those as the Home minister, Geoff Mahy is off.
He does not believe the next States will be weaker than the current one, despite the noticeable loss of Treasury minister Charles Parkinson.
Cast your eyes around the current Assembly and there are few who stand out as candidates for the Treasury job next time around – Allister Langlois is often mentioned but beyond that there is much head scratching.
Would the island benefit from a novice in the post coming in from the outside?
We may be racing ahead of ourselves here, but the lack of depth for the Treasury post is manifest when it comes to selecting a potential Policy Council.
Others have positioned themselves, either deliberately or organically, for a seat on the Policy Council – we know for instance that the likes of Al Brouard, Ivan Rihoy and Leon Gallienne have all expressed desires in this direction before.
Yet from the 2008 intake, Peter Gillson and Jane Stephens have come in for praise by their colleagues, who are perhaps in the best position to judge.
If you asked the public, it is not wild to suggest most would fail to find a Policy Council from the current list of runners and riders.
Chief Minister Lyndon Trott is widely expected to run for election and would in many people's book be a shoo-in to retain his post.
But it will be contested.
Do not be surprised to see some of those who fought for the job before, such as Carla McNulty Bauer (another undecided, but with all the indicators pointing to her running) and Hunter Adam, throwing their hat into the ring for chief minister again.
Whoever becomes chief minister, the public would no doubt expect to see Matt Fallaize as the standout performer of the new class promoted into a position of power – whether he feels he is ready for that is an altogether different question.
It is a big ask to come in from the outside and straight onto the Policy Council – just ask Stuart Falla. So, if it happens, it will be an exceptional individual and it is unlikely to be more than one.
Would some of the present ministers who have declared want to remain in their respective roles?
Culture and Leisure is no doubt the easier task of all the roles, so you would imagine Mike O'Hara would fancy a bigger challenge.
Housing minister Dave Jones has in the past expressed a desire for a new challenge. Education minister Carol Steere faces the fight of her life simply to get re-elected, let alone get a seat back on the top bench.
If you want to sum up the performance of this Assembly, look no further than the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.
I will leave that to stew for a while and return to the thought another day.
Speculation aside, which as any political junkie or gambler will know is one of the socially acceptable addictions of election time, the reality is that Guernsey will need a backbone in the next four years that it has not either shown or been asked to this time around.
The sharks in the UK and Europe are circling, now more than ever.
How the States plays the international game will increasingly be the decider between success and failure.
Anyone considering throwing their hat into the ring needs to carefully reflect on the challenges that lie ahead, whether they can bring enough quality to help meet them and whether Guernsey's system is set up to meet them.
