Election 2012 - potential hot topics
To help spark some ideas, news editor Nick Mann takes readers through what he thinks the key election issues will be in 2012...
To help spark some ideas, news editor Nick Mann takes readers through what he thinks the key election issues will be in 2012...
Who would have thought that we would be entering an election cycle with a backdrop of uncertainty over the future of corporate tax, stark failings highlighted in secondary education and no final decision on what to do with the island's waste?
In 2008, the landscape was dominated by zero-10 and student loans. The former almost certainly damaged the polling performance of Deputy Lyndon Trott, and the latter was blamed for Wendy Morgan losing her seat.
Both the economy and education will again shape this year's campaign, but in different ways from four years ago.
It is the first time for several elections that it will be played out with job losses starting to bite home as the economy falters. In particular, the UK's decision on the VAT relief on cheap goods shipped from Guernsey is likely to cause a major shock within the fulfilment industry. Voters will be asking themselves whether this States handled the issue in the right way and whom they can trust to get people back into work and diversify the economy.
This neatly fits in with the issue of international threats to Guernsey and how the new Assembly will deal with them. Midway through this term there was great interest in pursuing more independence from the UK, something which faded as domestic issues took over.
But zero-10 and VAT relief are all matters played out on the international stage and the threat is that the UK and European Union will become more protectionist as their economies struggle, putting the Bailiwick in the firing line.
There really has been one hot topic since the GCSE results were released after sustained pressure by this newspaper and some deputies. Standards in Education, particularly the performances at the High Schools, and how the whole situation was handled. This led to the departure of Education minister Carol Steere and may well prove a sticking point for those other members still tainted by it. The new board has also promised that a review of primary education will be released on the eve of the election. Every voter has an interest in education and if there are any failings it hits home in an often very personal way.
The words 11-plus may well be back in the frame. It has also thrown into the spotlight the lack of openness of Guernsey's government.
Some topics expected to grab the imagination this term did not fly quite as much as expected, such as population.
But looking into the crystal ball, what has been termed the 'grey issue' will be a key one for the States going forward, and one only touched on by this Assembly.
How do we continue to pay for an aging population as the number of people working declines in comparison to those requiring support? How far can the island go with raising contributions and/or retirement ages?
It is a very real problem for which no one has come up with a solution – and something that will be discussed by the new States.
No doubt some traditional election issues will have a role this time around again. Island-wide voting, while consigned to the dustbin by this Assembly, has always played well in a campaign.
Reform on the system of government, while dry, is another, but the course will already be set for a review should the States back a requete in March so it may not be as prominent as in previous campaigns. Paid parking is sure to get the temperatures rising every time, especially for St Peter Port electors and commuters.
Another area which sparked unprecedented debate this term was solid waste – no one who was there will forget the army of protesters outside the Chamber when it was debated.
A decision on whether to back shipping to Jersey will be made in the run-up to election time, so it will be visible, but nowhere near as contentious as the incinerator debacle.
Voters will also be asking themselves whether the States has delivered on its promise to be more efficient. Is the electorate prepared to pay more for better services before confirmation that government has cut its cloth?
Do islanders believe the States is providing the right services, or are other areas more pressing?
Then there is always the chance of the unknown – a single election issue that captures the imagination of the electorate because of timing. Whatever that might be, this is your chance to set the ball rolling. Simply email newsroom@guernsey-press.com, write, tweet or Facebook the killer question you want to put to the election candidates and we will do the rest.
