Next States to be left with some tough choices

As thoughts turn to the legacy the present incumbents will leave behind, Nick Mann considers just what the future holds for the next States members.

THIS week is buzzing with confirmations and speculation about who will or will not stand in next month's election.

As candidates enter the Royal Court building to hand in their nomination forms, they would do well to open their eyes wide and look at the legacy they will be picking up from the class of 2008 to 2012.

Because, despite a flurry of activity in the last few months of this Assembly, its track record is one of setting a ball in motion without always having a clear idea of where it is going.

It is the way of the political process nowadays that 'in-principle' decisions get made and then the detail, when it really starts to bite on the public, comes later.

So this Assembly has put in the groundwork on the Financial Transformation Programme, a major cost-cutting initiative to make the States as lean as possible.

At first glance that is a major step forward, but it was not a tough one.

The major and potentially unpopular decisions and serious cost-cutting comes in the next few years.

While this Assembly pulled off the trick of allowing itself to spend the savings, giving the public something, the next should have no such luxury.

Cost cuts are designed to be just that, otherwise the deficit remains.

And what of that deficit?

While it has reduced, it still stands at some £30m. so spending initiatives post-2012 will be few and far between.

States headline policies are about economic growth and keeping expenditure at RPI or less.

Wedded to that is the future of zero-10, another legacy being passed on to the new Assembly.

There is still much uncertainty about the future of corporate taxation, with Europe currently reviewing the regime and whether it is sufficiently different to Jersey and the Isle of Man that key elements can remain in place.

There is a desire for the zero bracket, we know, to remain.

Debate over the next four years may well centre on expanding the types of company in the 10% bracket to ease the pressure on public finances.

Last week there were plenty in the Assembly who were willing to vote benefit reforms through and leave it to their successors to decide how to fund them.

That feeling has summed up this States – give the impression of making tough decisions but never have to deal with the consequences.

Population is another inheritance.

The debate never really caught fire among the public this term, but a series of wide-ranging investigations has been put in place with the aim of introducing wholesale change, which could well bite within the next four years.

Some hail the recent States decision on waste as evidence of this Assembly's positive contribution.

But in four years, we have got only as far as an aspiration.

Again it is for the next Assembly to be responsible for putting that into action, including negotiating an acceptable export contract, probably with Jersey, and initiatives such as kerbside recycling that will impact on all islanders' lives.

Will those responsible this time around put their hands up again and turn their good words into action?

Capital spending has consistently failed to reach States targets, potentially leaving a legacy of underinvestment for subsequent Assemblies to pick up.

No doubt in the next four years we will see support for redevelopment at La Mare de Carteret High School, but what happens when the crumbling sewage network is put alongside that?

This States spent more time than its predecessor looking inwards at its processes and ways of working.

In some cases the legacy has been positive, tightening up procedures and practices, being able to debate priorities and improving accounting procedures, but in others it has just felt like tinkering at the edges.

Things such as zero-based budgeting, where each department has to make its case for every crumb of spending each year instead of just rolling over what has gone before, are only on the horizon.

At least the States Strategic Plan is firmly in place to pull together all the different competing strands of the Assembly's work.

The challenge from 2012 will be to make the States, its members and civil servants truly accountable – the SSP can help with that.

Another major item on the to-do list, again handed over from this term, is the machinery of government review.

It has the potential to create an efficient, streamlined and accountable States.

It also has the potential to get bogged down in political posturing, given the make-up of the investigation panel.

This States spoke a lot about open government while failing for a large part to deliver it.

So on the hand-over list, as much as they were in 2008, are the building blocks for a proper access regime and perhaps one day this might go as far as writing in stone the public's right to know.

It will also pass over investigations into commercialisation of Guernsey's harbours, airport and water operations; an energy policy which again set in train a lot in investigations; investigations into an infrastructure plan – you get the picture.

Perhaps it was a States characterised by planning and not so much doing.

I can almost hear the oft-repeated phrase in the States – 'if you don't plan, you plan to fail'.

And of course there is no road transport strategy, or certainly not one worth the title.

Environment's 'vision' was pulled after talks broke down with Island Coachways over the bus contract.

So it will hand over its thoughts to its successor, which is nice, as the States has gone another term without firming up any way of dealing with the island's traffic problem or funding the initiatives.

Some debates that were scheduled for this term have been rolled over as the workload mushroomed at the end of this term, including seeking further independence – an issue that firmly dovetails with growing the island's standing on the international stage and seeing off threats over issues such as low value consignment relief.

If the court challenge this week against HM Treasury is not successful, then the next Assembly may well be picking up unemployment figures that have not been seen for more than a decade.

Tough times lie ahead.