Will it be a case of into the lions' den for new Assembly?
IF the last week of politicising is anything to go by, we are in for something of a wild ride over the next four years.
IF the last week of politicising is anything to go by, we are in for something of a wild ride over the next four years.
The new Assembly has not been sworn in yet and it has managed to splinter opinion both within and from the outside.
Debate has centred on the four-year experience rule for chief minister, a rule endorsed by two different Houses.
Those who want to scrap it believe it should be a free election and, while they may protest their support is simply to allow anyone to stand, there is only one name in the frame – Peter Harwood.
Support at today's meeting for scrapping the rule will be a precursor to Deputy-elect Harwood taking the office, unless there has been some very strong manoeuvring over the weekend.
But the whole thing has tainted the new Assembly, especially with the growing feeling this has been fuelled by some ongoing members settling old scores.
When the island voted for the 2012 intake, it did so in the knowledge that the four-year rule applied.
No doubt Deputy Lyndon Trott, who has pulled out of the race, won the final seat in St Sampson's on the back of the electorate expecting him to stand in a race against other old hands.
Talk of transparency has permeated the 2012 General Election – can anyone find the candidate who stood on a ticket of changing the chief minister election rules? Deputy Trott has been outfoxed behind the scenes and that will hurt.
Those promoting the rule change argue that 'the island voted for change by electing 22 new members, so here it is'.
But the change mantra does not really stack up.
The weakness of the current electoral system is that each person stands on an individual platform – the electorate may have voted for different faces, but in each case it would have been for a different reason.
There is no clear message for the incomers to say what exactly it is they have been voted in to do – and it is very unlikely to have been to unravel the four-year rule.
The old Assembly cannot bind the new, but that does not mean altering policies, rules and procedures on a whim and each time arguing there was a vote for change. Taken to the Nth degree, it could lead to introducing GST – the old Assembly never did, the island voted for change, so, hey presto, here's change.
What about independence from the UK, driving a car only on a Sunday, scrapping income tax – it's not been done before.
OK, that is all very tongue-in-cheek but it shows you what a varied interpretation can be put on the 'vote for change mandate'.
Before things get out of hand, everyone within the new Assembly should take a step back and see how the saga is being viewed from the outside.
It is certainly not with the universal support of the electorate – there are plenty who think it is an undignified sight.
There is actually a strong democratic argument for revisiting the chief minister election rules, so that if the States is naive enough to elect someone with no political experience then the members should be able to.
But the decision is not one that should be made in the rabid heat minutes before a chief minister election.
It will always be seen as a highly political move being made when emotions are running high.
Watch out for just how far this Assembly will take its 'change' badge.
Could it see another newcomer at the helm of Treasury and Resources in Deputy-elect Gavin St Pier?
He is entering the States with a massively positive reputation, just as Stuart Falla did in 2004. Sadly, he left just four years later in clear frustration.
It is not wild speculation to see political novices filling the two most important and powerful roles on the Policy Council at a time when the world is increasingly hostile to Guernsey and tough decisions need to be made on eliminating the budget deficit.
It is a sad indictment on the individual progress made by those who remain from 2008 that it has come to this.
The hope has to be that the dust settles in a few weeks' time after the elections and, as things clear, a stable government emerges.
But the fear remains that a lack of political nous at the top will leave the States horribly exposed to both internal friction and external pressure.
