Single-party government could lead to rapid change

IT COULD be an eye-opening couple of years for the island as the Conservatives consolidate power in the UK.

Some commentators have sought to play down the impact of the UK General Election on Guernsey, but a Conservative majority and a strong Scottish Nationalist Party are a combination worth watching.

Remember, too, that this is a Tory party shorn of the Lib-Dem conscience so will be able to move much further and faster on some of its ideological goals.

Because of that, in some ways a Conservative majority could do more harm to the island than a coalition of whatever colour could have done because, if it moves in the wrong direction, it does so at pace.

Guernsey has always been more comfortable with the Tories because of the belief they are more allied to our financial services industry, recognising the role Guernsey plays in the UK economy.

That may well be the case, but the islands have been caught in the sights of George Osborne in the last term and could easily be so again if there is political gain to be had.

That, though, is probably the least of the worries.

Much more profound could be the UK's changing relationship with Europe and with it Guernsey's.

The island essentially has access to the European markets through its relationship with the UK.

Should the nuclear option be triggered and the UK pulls out of the European Union, the impact could be profound.

Where would the Channel Islands stand in any renegotiations? They will not be upmost in any of the big players' minds, that much is sure.

This may be seen as an opportunity by some of the less friendly quarters in Europe to go on the attack too.

Neither Labour, the Lib Dems nor the Scottish Nationalists want to exit, nor does Prime Minister David Cameron, but he will be pulled that way by some quarters in his party if he does not win enough concessions and a referendum campaign will be fought fiercely.

Ultimately, it will come down to the public, and although the majority see the benefits of being in Europe now, at least according to a YouGov poll in February, the mood can change in unpredictable ways.

The success of Ukip shows there is a strong nationalist tendency coming through which could be a factor here.

There is another pledge from the Conservatives that is worth keeping an eye on from a Guernsey perspective.

Its ramifications are again complex.

That is the plans to scrap the Human Rights Act and instead introduce a British Bill of Rights.

This would fundamentally change the role of the European Court of Human Rights, its interpretation of the convention and how it affects the UK – therefore potentially its role with Guernsey too.

It would break the formal link between the British courts and the European Court of Human Rights – Britain would no longer have to take into account rulings from Europe – UK courts would have the final say in interpreting convention rights.

That means, potentially, UK courts would be the ultimate backstop for interpreting human rights cases from Guernsey.

Currently a ruling from Strasbourg has to be followed

by the UK and its laws changed accordingly. The Conservatives want the power for parliament to be able to override that.

This means a double-headed repatriation of power to the UK, again potentially strengthening its power over these islands.

This is not just an exercise in abstract power shifts, the ECHR plays a key direct role in Guernsey policies and laws.

Most significantly in recent times is perhaps how it has led to changes in housing licences and the new population policy.

The length of the new permits has been dictated by how challenges would ultimately be interpreted against the convention.

How would the British Bill fit into this mix, if at all?

It could also spark interest again in a Guernsey bill of rights, so passionately backed by the few.

Politically, the UK election means having to re-establish

relationships.

New politicians will fill some roles that can impact on Guernsey, although there is a welcome degree of continuity too.

Directly, our relationship with the UK is handled by the Ministry of Justice, which will now be headed up by Michael Gove although it will be another minister with direct responsibility for the crown dependencies.

The Scottish dimension is fascinating.

Further devolution is promised, which means Guernsey will have a fresh focus on dealing with Scotland in a way that would not have been needed only years ago.

It is all smiles from the Conservatives at the moment.

If the UK economy responds well to their stewardship, Guernsey will reap the benefits of that.

There should, though, be a note of caution.

Big unknowns remain in the Tory plans and its majority is slim in historical terms.

A second term, this time in sole power, will bring a more radical agenda than before.