A time of contradictions as spin cycle kicks in

LOOKING in from the outside, some common characteristics have epitomised each States term since the latest system of government was introduced.

If you were drawing biological comparisons – or maybe you were in one of those seminars given by gurus or consultants – you would talk about life cycles.

To start, there is the birth and honeymoon period.

With this Assembly it was the Sarnia Spring, the States of Change, all sorts of positive vibes about being, well, different.

Everything is new, everyone is keen to get along, to act as one happy body and show a united front to the electorate – a new type of politics.

This is the learning time too. To a fair portion of the States everything is fresh and exciting, even sitting in the States chamber, or entering the doors of Frossard House.

There is an energy too – people have been voted in and feel proud to have been chosen.

In reality not much happens in this period. There is a lot of bringing new boards up to speed on their work, maybe members sussing out who their allies and friends will be, who they will have lunch with – but this is a window of opportunity where the public is less cynical and willing to give the States a chance.

This may last six months, until the public's demand to see things happen is met with members' desire to make good on all those pledges they got voted in on in the first place. Now they want to achieve.

Maybe we will see the first signs of taking a different course from the previous administration, the odd requete on a pet topic or election issue, perhaps.

There will be some big decisions in terms of overarching policies too, the kind of decisions that should set the agenda that the rest of the term's will fit to. These are unlikely to be controversial because they are too obscure to engage the public's appetite.

This is still a happy time within the States and still one where they are conscious of public opinion – memories of face to face conversations on the doorstep on the campaign trail are still fresh enough to matter.

The first Budget will come and go with some tinkering, but it is inevitably a 'steady as she goes' type of affair.

There comes a point now, maybe a year in, when newer members feel empowered, they understand their role and will puff up their chests. Alliances have been formed and broken, but there will be no seismic falling-out. Where the experienced hands had been taking a lead, there will now be more public questioning and challenges from the new intake.

Policy making will be reasoned, even boring if you can characterise it like that. They will be grappling with some of those big ticket items handed over from the previous Assembly, so facing some public kickback, but much of the groundwork will be in place and the arguments already rehearsed by those who went before.

There is an ownership deficit here, a get of out jail free card that this was someone else's work which we just have to get on with.

Some members will be unhappy with the roles they ended up with and will be agitating for a move elsewhere, or at least making soundings and trying to establish themselves.

Years two to three are vital. There will be a real frustration that until this point it has mostly been about policy making, or setting agendas and prioritising workstreams, but not, for example, putting the spade in the ground of a new school.

The first big embarrassment would have happened and have had to be dealt with. It is in these years that members are much more willing to pull down departments, to see resignations, maybe they have realised they put the wrong people into the wrong jobs and now have a desire to climb the ladder themselves. Get too close to an election and they won't want to see any destabilisation, it is seen as just not worth the hassle.

Everyone has grown into the shoes of being a deputy and the States has a common identity.

Members can still see there is time to make a difference and will have more tools in their own box, more understanding of the system to make it happen. With the election so far away, controversial decisions can be made without fear of what it will mean at the ballot box. They will be much more willing to run contrary to popular sentiment.

As you enter the last year, many in the Assembly will have become distant from the electorate – which in turn makes decision-making much easier for them.

They will be frustrated that they are not being held in the kind of esteem they feel is worthy of their status and their achievements so far. They will be frustrated with the negative comments coming from the public and as a result turn inwards. They will lambast people for not knowing enough about what they are doing, not being informed or not understanding.

Perhaps a pomposity takes over, the critical eye will have been blinded and a real disconnect with the island is seen.

This is when the public will talk of the worst States ever, giving those in power a greater sense of injustice and banding them ever more tightly.

It is also the time when you can make a real assessment about whether the new policies and announcements made stand up to scrutiny and have achieved what they set out to do.

That makes for a prickly relationship within the chamber walls and with those outside of them.

Members also won't be able to let go of topics they lost out on earlier in the term and may well make moves to get them back before the Assembly for another try, hoping that the mood has changed.

In the final six months, a fever takes over.

Senior staff will tell you about the difficulties of getting things done.

States members will be entrenched in their camps, personality clashes will be much more marked yet there will also be a need, for those standing again, to defend the legacy of the term of office.

It is therefore a time of contradictions.

They will all be keen to stress the positives, the achievements, while distancing themselves from anything that is either unpopular or questionable. They will also be looking to stand out, get themselves in the public eye – taking up popular causes about which they can bash their colleagues. Expect more amendments, more public statements, more requetes – anything which can be put on a manifesto.

The spin cycle will be on maximum, they will argue black is white if it is a vote winner even if it was black only months ago. Controversial decisions will be fudged so they are passed on to the next Assembly.

The workload, though, will be ferocious. We will hear about more initiatives than we have done in the preceding three-plus years as there is a rush to make good on the piles of work created early on.

Those on the way out will go one of two ways – quietly, taking the back seat and cruising into retirement, or they will feel unencumbered and really speak their minds.

It can lead to some real fireworks and uncomfortable moments.

A States forms, it settles, it begins to break up and then it ends before we start all over again.