This year's government will be a very different beast

WELCOME to 2016 – election year.

We are now in the countdown to 27 April, confirmation coming in about who's quitting, who's standing and the grapevine lighting up with rumours and speculation.

All great fun – not long, too, until we have the public's answer to the question of whether the 'Sarnia Spring' sprang or wilted.

There are structural shifts that make the forthcoming election more intriguing than the last.

The cut in seats in some parishes is one factor, the change in the committee structure another.

Will the reforms be enough to tempt people into standing, with the promise of an increasingly efficient and effective government, the opportunity to achieve more than the current model allows?

Certainly the change knocks down a barrier to those who have been frustrated by what they experienced in the past – it offers hope for now.

It is also meant to precipitate a new type of States member, one ensconced in policy making and strategy, not down in the trenches of the operational nitty gritty.

Indeed, its success is pretty much dependent on this happening and whether that discipline can be achieved, given the history of this current intake, will be one of the challenges – whether what it takes to be a deputy will be understood by the candidates being another factor in play.

There is already talk of the big hitters aiming for a seat on the super-committee of five that will be in charge of the policy and spending agenda.

Take your pick from the current chief minister Jonathan Le Tocq, Treasury minister Gavin St Pier, Commerce and Employment minister Kevin Stewart and former Treasury minister Charles Parkinson and former chief minister Lyndon Trott.

Add into the mix the possibilities of Peter Roffey or Peter Ferbrache entering the fray, and pressure will no doubt come from some quarters for someone such as Matt Fallaize to now step up to a leadership position too, although given his careful rise up through the ranks that is more likely to be on one of the other committees operating under Policy and Resources.

All very male, that line-up, admittedly.

Why this is all so intriguing is the potential the new system opens up for loose political coalitions to emerge in the run-up to the election.

Given the need to establish a policy agenda early in the next term, a handful of candidates could align themselves to several key areas they agree on to give the electorate some certainty about what they are voting for.

If it contains even a hint of substance, this would be a radical departure from 80 or 90 individual manifestos that say and commit to very little.

Political parties it is not – the system really does not allow for that model to be effective. If someone dissents from the party line, what happens to them? You can't strip them of their job, because there are no hire and fire powers – just give them the cold shoulder.

Guernsey is too used to and happy with chameleon politicians who jump from issue to issue, changing their allegiances.

The environment is also ripe for common-interest groups to file candidates under the same banner, especially given the protests and organisation that has been seen in response to some of this States' decisions.

Will, for instance, Enough is Enough field or back candidates? Do they have enough of a common stance beyond opposition to do so?

We have seen the success this term from single-interest lobby groups whose ability to drive the agenda has been more pronounced than in the last decade.

That creates a culture and environment from which candidates can emerge having had their political appetite heightened, but whether they feel more effective on the outside with their focus on specific issues than being caught up in the maelstrom of government is another issue altogether.

Then there is the continual quest for wider representation within the States, with practical steps being taken this time to encourage more women to stand.

A second Power of the Voice seminar on Saturday aims to move from talking about the issue to offering practical action to encourage and support those women thinking of standing.

If the States is ever to reflect the society it governs and shed the grey men in suits syndrome, these types of initiative need to gain traction – if the candidates are strong enough, they will be elected whatever their sex, background or even age. Sometimes it just takes a nudge to get them on the ballot paper.

There are some predictions that half this States will not be standing again in a few months' time and although if tradition is a guide that number will shrink to around a dozen, there will still be room for new faces to take empty seats and depose members whose time has come.

The government of 2016 will be a very different beast, with different expectations to those assemblies since the 2004 machinery of government changes.

It is the last chance to make the consensus model work, too, all at a time when finances are tight and public morale, in some vocal quarters at least, is low.

Let the election season roll.