Island, like the UK, needs clarity in the wake of Brexit

POLITICIANS in the UK, Europe and here are trying to calm a Brexit storm.

Guernsey and the other Crown Dependencies are giving off an air of calm and stability, one step removed perhaps but still on the fringes of the maelstrom and feeling its impact.

They talk of taking advantage of the situation – that's a nice sunny outlook, but the reality is that the status quo was a much easier environment to navigate.

Brexit talk has dominated the headlines – the fallout has been even more destabilising than one could realistically have imagined.

And amid all of this, you might well ask what the UK's post-vote plan was? Because it is not abundantly clear at the moment and we all suffer the indirect consequences, whether that is it being more expensive to go on holiday to Europe, increased petrol prices or the uncertainty of future trading relationships.

Brexit champion Boris Johnson wants more time and no rush to trigger the formal two-year exit progress. But many in Europe who are keen on clarity and moving forward say the UK should just get on with it.

The vote has led to David Cameron stepping down as Prime Minister, saying nothing should happen until his replacement is voted in, with an October deadline.

Chancellor George Osborne has pulled back on the threat of an emergency Brexit Budget – not the first U-turn to be identified between the campaign and the new reality – and tried to calm the financial markets.

Labour is locked in a leadership coup with resignations on the hour.

Scotland is manoeuvring to stay in the EU, although yesterday rolled back from another independence vote. Even Spain has taken advantage and now has its eyes on flying its flag in Gibraltar.

London, which voted strongly for remain, is now speaking more with its own voice, showing a further fracturing of the union on regional lines.

There is a sense of incredulity among the educated younger generations, something reflected in Guernsey, who are much more borderless in their consciousness than the retirees and working class who have driven the Brexit.

If this was a vote that reflects how distrusted politicians are, the fallout promises to degrade that relationship even more.

Immigration fears were a major factor in the UK's decision, yet the Brexiteers now talk of remaining within the EEC for the free trade links – with that comes free movement of people.

They spoke of ploughing an extra £350m. sent every week to the EU straight back into the NHS. It was not only a fallacy of a figure, they also admit that whatever the amount is it will need to be spread among other competing spending demands.

A growing number of remain supporters want a second referendum once the terms of the leave talks are finalised. A rerun feels like an affront to democracy, but voters would at least be making a choice based on the terms of a concrete deal, not a political fantasy world.

That a referendum has delivered a result yet left many to want it overturned, whether through a second attempt, a general election or by Parliament (it is not legally binding) shows the pitfalls of a tool that is meant to be so democratic by letting the people have their say.

Guernsey does not have referendum legislation yet, but will use one to decide on island-wide voting – vastly different scales in terms of issues, but it is just as easy to see a rump that will argue against if it is in any way inconclusive.

To Remain supporters, the vote leaves the UK isolated and out in the cold.

For the leavers, it is the start of a new independent, strong and optimistic jurisdiction.

This matters to Guernsey because our economy relies heavily on a strong and successful UK economy.

The UK is our main trading link – if goods get more expensive there, they will get more expensive here.

If finance firms implement staff freezes and start contracting in London, it happens here.

And what if, in the long term, the new UK does end up in a very similar position in its relationship with Europe as Guernsey, not bound by all the rules but only those it sees fit to implement but with ready market access – surely that then undermines the uniqueness of the island's offering?

Will operations start migrating back to London? It may require some nimbleness and innovation in the island, although there is no reason that cannot happen as it has been done before.

Protocol 3, which gave Guernsey and the Crown Dependencies free access for trade in physical goods when the UK negotiated its own entry into the EEC in 1971, was a very good deal for the island at the time – one it will want replicated when the exit talks take place.

Ensuring the island's position is not directly weakened during the negotiations is paramount for the States.

Political uncertainty and movements in the UK will not help in getting a message across.

The more important relationship for the finance industry, that of a third country with market access for the trade in services, remains intact.

The States yesterday spoke about the importance of ensuring the rights of EU citizens currently in the Channel Islands, and islanders living in the EU, are protected.

Guernsey's relationship with the European Courts could also change on the back of the UK's eventual withdrawal.

The sovereignty issue was big on the minds of voters last week – part of that ire was the role that Europe had in directing UK law.

But it is important to note that Brexit does not mean the end of the UK being a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights, or the island's application of the convention – that remains, unless the prevailing mood triggers a separate political move to leave.

The Leave vote could, though, mean a change in the relationship with the European Court of Justice, which currently has jurisdiction on specific areas of community law which the UK has agreed to and, specifically in terms of the island, those coming under Protocol 3.

Brexit has created an environment in that the only certain thing is uncertainty – and one where voters will not get all that they dreamed of.

What everyone wants now is a clear route to the next stage in the UK's relationship with Europe – and with it the island's.