Inter-island co-operation needed on European stage

A VACUUM continues to exist around the debate about the implications of Brexit locally.

Just as in the UK, we are getting lots of reassurance about what is happening in the background, how prepared we are, and how we are talking to all the right people, but no one is saying how the various scenarios could actually play out.

We know, for instance, that Protocol 3, long the cornerstone of our relationship with the EU, will fall away as a result of the process, but not how that will impact if it is not replaced with a like-for-like deal.

This caginess is in some ways understandable – everyone is playing their cards close to their chests, no doubt for fear of spooking the economy, but that does not help if you are the fisherman wondering if you will be able to land your catch in France in the years ahead.

We may learn more today when the three lead politicians from the Crown Dependencies are grilled in a live scenario by the House of Lords European Union Committee.

This will examine, in much the same way that the Justice Select Committee is, how the existing relationship with the EU will be affected, the risks and opportunities and what relationship the islands want moving forward.

There will need to be some top-drawer negotiating, or the hope that we can slip a few things in under the radar, for Brexit to benefit the islands.

The UK was our voice, and our eyes and ears, within Europe – losing that has to be a major worry given the attitude of some countries to the role played by the islands in the finance world.

One of the consequences will have to be stepping up the islands' presence in Brussels or face the consequences, unintended or otherwise, of the EU's decision-making.

At the moment Guernsey and Jersey jointly fund a Brussels office to represent their interests.

At its launch some questioned the costs and the need, but many will now tell you how successful it has been.

That will need to be expanded if the islands wish to have their voices heard in the European debates to come – and it would seem to make some sense to bring the Isle of Man in on the deal as well to spread the costs.

Inter-island co-operation at that level has not really got off the ground in any meaningful way, but with the vulnerable position Brexit has left all three in, this could just be the trigger for a new period of co-operation.

The Lords hearing may seem like a dry affair – but if you really like that kind of thing, you can watch it live online on Parliament TV.

But it, like the Justice Committee's investigation, all helps build a presence and keep the Crown Dependencies at least on the radar for the UK government when it finally decides what it wants to do.

The fear is obvious – the UK's interests will come first, second and third during the Brexit talks and it would be delusional to think otherwise.

For Guernsey, it is not just about its stated aim of enhancing access to EU markets, but to UK ones as well.

It also wants to rebalance the relationship with the UK – which is a bold statement – and avoid the discrimination against islanders that it perceives as having happened at times when the UK has set policy or created new laws to meet EU obligations.

Change will always bring opportunity as well as threats, and it is no hyperbole to suggest this is the top international task facing the States in the years ahead.

Get it wrong, or be overlooked, and the consequences could be huge.

Guernsey is not part of the World Trade Organisation, so is vulnerable should the UK decide to start again with a raft of new trade deals outside the EU customs area.

Having the UK's WTO membership extended to Guernsey is on the agenda, as is piggy-backing on any new free trade relationships it sets up.

Guernsey also wants to be able to negotiate its own trade agreements – another step on the road to enhancing its standing on the international stage.

There are well-established fears that unravelling the UK's relationship with the EU and then establishing a new one is a task so complex that it could take a decade.

That is years of uncertainty when Guernsey's place will be changing too.

The staff resources are growing in the UK, and will do here, and already the stance that Brexit means Brexit is not a good enough answer to what is about to unfold.

The UK government is fighting a daily battle to say as little as possible, but it is also clear there are splits about what it wants to do about things such as access to the single market, immigration and the customs union.

That makes it difficult to comprehend the consequential impact nearer the bottom of the food chain where the islands sit.

You can only assume that someone has penned out what happens should the UK do X or Y and how we react.

At the moment local politics is going through a period of introspection, dominated by the local agenda.

Very soon the discourse is going to have to be much more outward-looking.