2017 agenda will feel akin to climbing Alpe d'Huez

IF THE 2016 political landscape was akin to Table Mountain, 2017 should have more of the feel of a climb up Alpe d'Huez*.

Last year began with a rush of reports and decisions as the old States reached its apogee, before the general election halted things in their tracks, and the workload, and with it progress, tapered off.

But 2017? Well, it should begin with a bang and keep on rolling from there.

After the niceties of the getting to know you, forming overarching strategies monotony of the last few months – the 11-plus vote aside – that has characterised the States, this year promises much more of a proverbial mountain to climb.

There are some big debates to be had and some fundamental decisions to be made.

It will all start with the motion of no confidence in January, which is fitting as education will be a big focus in 2017.

If this board survives, it has promised a report on changing the funding arrangements for pre-school education early this year, as well as coming back with how it will move to all-ability secondary education and the schools before June.

We should also have an explanation of why the Salerie Corner costs escalated with the results of a report into what happened which could prompt a Scrutiny hearing.

February has also been earmarked for the gun-to-the head waste debate, where the States will be asked to give its OK to the export plans with very little room for manoeuvre. This being waste, though, we have all learnt to expect some twists and turns.

In the same month, we have been promised final reports about efficiency savings in two of the biggest spending committees – Home Affairs and Education, Sport & Culture. Will Home be the first to really cut to the bone, as its president said last year?

Early 2017 is also the vague deadline for the finalisation of the strategic review of Aurigny, which will remind us just how much the airline contributes to the economy, and no doubt tell us why it does not need to turn a real profit because of that.

Brexit will be on the lips of politicians too, with the triggering of the two-year window to negotiate how the UK leaves the European Union and what its future relationship is.

Jersey has set aside £4m. to navigate itself through these complex times.

Whichever way the UK moves, Guernsey will need to react to protect its position.

The new population regime also comes in, and for the first time we will move from theory to find out what the impact on people and business on the ground is.

Details of Guernsey's first ever referendum will need to be sorted out early this year if islanders are to have their say on island-wide voting in 2017, as was indicated last term.

That will be another divisive issue, with no clear cut winner, especially with the States Assembly and Constitution Committee lining up to put different options to the vote.

How the States copes with the summer workload, and the decisions it makes, will set the direction for this term.

Prioritisation will be the buzzword, but it is a massive undertaking.

In June, as part of Policy and Resources plan part deux, all the committees will be announcing what they want to do this term, with new policy initiatives facing off against each other.

The capital spending debate will also be in the mix, where we find out what the wish list of building projects is and we already know there are desires to spend way above what is available.

We will be told in turn how vital each one is, as we were last term, and no doubt some of them will drift on without being concluded, thus proving how unimportant they actually are, just like last term.

As the year drifts on, the debate about funding social welfare will hot up, something that was signposted in the last few months with the withholding of the funding expected for the reforms agreed last term.

That means the States has recognised that some people are living in intolerable poverty, worked out what to do about it, but has decided not to act.

As the end of the year draws closer, everyone will be looking to see whether the States has balanced the books as it promised.

OK, so the Budget has pulled off a few sleights of hand, noticeably putting less money into the capital pot than it should, and none into the health service fund, but as this year has proven, it is a challenge even with those moves.

Key to it will be finding the 3% of savings – and savings will be in even sharper focus come the 2018 Budget as an even bigger reduction of 5% is pledged for then and the same the year after.

Delivering on public sector reform will provide a backdrop to the whole year – without it the 3/5/5 strategy is nothing but a pipedream.

The Budget will be a test of whether this States can deliver on its promises – including whether the £5m. return expected from States' Trading Assets been delivered?

We are also promised updates on the sugar tax concept and whether businesses that benefit from improvements in connectivity should help pay for them.

Health & Social Care has pledged to release detailed transformation plans by the end of 2017 – it has already gone through its benchmarking exercise which pointed to efficiencies in excess of £20m.

Of course, all the above is the expected.

It is, to quote, 'events, dear boy, events' that will have a large hand to play in the success or otherwise of this Assembly's first real year of action.

• *Alpe d’Huez is a ski station which is more famous as being used as a regular stage finish in the Tour de France. The climb has 21 hairpin bends.