Considering the options

We have a democratic system where we, the electorate, empower deputies to make decisions on our behalf. This is where deputies get the legitimacy for their decisions – it comes from our willingness to allow them to make these decisions.

I am making a distinction between legality and legitimacy. As Lord Sumption pointed out in a recent lecture, the UK government has such a majority it could probably pass a law banning opposition parties – it may be legal, but it would not be a legitimate use of their power.

So, at what point does a government or committee’s decision lose its legitimacy? The short answer is that there is no simple answer, but hearing Deputy Peter Roffey on the radio say that he would not be surprised if 10,000 islanders objected to the two-school model, then perhaps they are getting close to that point.

All of this got me thinking about what political options Education has. There are a few which are worth considering:

Embrace a three-school model

To be fair to Deputy Fallaize, he has long held the view that 11-18 schools are the best option for the island. I recall him saying so when the rebuilding of Les Beaucamps was discussed.

Since Education genuinely believe in the two-school model, I cannot envisage a change of heart at this stage.

Embrace the requete

The requete does not actually stop the two-school model – it calls for a comparison between it and other options (realistically, three-school options) to establish what is the best option for our students. Education could support it if they believe the two-school option would come out of the comparison as the best option.

Despite the one-year delay it would cause, I think this has merit, as it would show that Education are listening, that they are happy to ensure we get the best system and that they too want what is best for the island, and not just their option.

If, after a fair comparison, the two-schools was to be found to be the best option, despite its problems, then I think most people would end up supportive – even if a little begrudgingly.

Unfortunately I think it is, on balance, unlikely to happen because it seems to now be a matter of political dogma rather than pragmatism.

Continue to oppose the requete

Almost certainly the option Education will choose.

I am convinced that what is driving the speed of this project is Education’s desire to get contracts signed and diggers on site before the election, so the change is too far advanced to be altered by the next government.

This would mean that they have no option but to continue fighting the requete – despite the wide-ranging, and justified, concerns.

Education amend the requete

In an attempt to take back the initiative, Education could try to amend the requete so it is friendlier to them. Perhaps by specifying the options the two-school model is compared with and perhaps to ensure this matter is brought back to this Assembly before the election.

Both of these have merit for Education.

At the moment the requete is, in effect, saying the implementation issues show the two-school model is not as good as it was thought to be and, since we all want what is best for our students, let’s pause to compare it against other models, and let the next Assembly, unencumbered by current political baggage, review the findings and make an informed decision.

That logic is difficult for Education to argue against, since their two-school model is in the mix and could prove to be the best one. Importantly, limiting the comparison to one or two specific options gives them something tangible to attack and fight against.

I am guessing, but I would not be surprised to find that during the actual debate there are a number of civil servants back at Education HQ listening to the debate, researching counter-arguments to what is said and emailing whole paragraphs for the Education members to insert into their speeches. A huge resource advantage which those behind the requete will not have, especially if the debate ends up between two specific models.

There is no doubt the Education deputies have a lot of personal support in the Assembly, which may not be there after the election, so bringing it back before the election could be attractive, increasing their odds.

The problem with any member of Education placing such an amendment is that it would be seen as a cynical attempt to take control of the process and increase the odds in their favour.

Somebody else places an amendment

Possibly, but who?

Anybody who supports Education could do it, but an interesting option would be Deputy St Pier.

He could place an amendment to make a decision before the election. As ‘chief minister’, this would be a show of leadership to stop it dragging on and becoming an election issue – close to an election would also be no bad thing for him personally.

There is also a far more subtle benefit for him. Throughout all of the debates he has supported the two-school option, indeed he has voted for it on every occasion, and an amendment like this would enable him to subtly support Education without actually publicly supporting them.

But no matter who brings such an amendment, there are problems with it.

The first is that it is obvious the current committee will revert to recommending the two-school model – it will hardly be an unbiased evaluation.

Another is the lack of time between the February debate and the last States meeting on 29 April. A mere eight weeks. If you accept that deputies and the public need to be given at least three weeks to evaluate any report, that leaves five weeks to research, consult and prepare the report. Not long at all. The time between the debate and the election is 15 weeks – a much better period to complete the review.

Ultimately, the legitimacy of a decision will be questioned if it is the result of a rushed and possibly biased process. If that happens as a result of an amendment which is seen to be biased, than this will definitely become an election issue, with the very real possibility of a very dissatisfied electorate.

At the time of writing no amendments have been placed. It is going to be an interesting few weeks.