Blame game

I SUSPECT more than a million desperate refugees will be heading to Europe over the months ahead as Afghanistan descends rapidly into civil war, factionalism and chaos. Many of them may pass our way because with English as their most common second language, the UK is a natural destination.

I also suspect, from experience, that many islanders will be short on sympathy for this sad tide of humanity fleeing westwards. That would be a profoundly wrong response. Partly because the natural human instincts driving this exodus are feelings and responses which most of us would share in similar circumstances. Partly because the West is, at least in part, to blame.

If it were simply a case of the Taliban swiftly taking power from the current government that would be bad enough. Particularly for the country’s women who have had their expectations raised by the freedoms which the western intervention of the last 20 years has provided. Many of these Afghan women have been truly inspirational in their contribution to every aspect of civil society from education to health and from government to law. I shudder to think what is in store for them.

The reality, though, is that the prognosis for Afghanistan is far worse than simply regime change. The Taliban and their foreign allies are hated by most Afghans and they are not naturally a people to be ruled by those whom they resent without a struggle. So cue civil war and factionalism and extended guerrilla fighting, with peaceful civilians caught in the cross hairs. That’s why I have sympathy with those who will flee.

I don’t claim to be any sort of expert on Afghanistan but having visited it more than once I think I have more idea than the typical European. I think many view it as a sort of land populated exclusively by maniacs bent on mutual destruction and holding life very cheap. People whose day-to-day motivations, hopes and fears are very different to our own. It’s no such thing.

Let me give you my own experience. I loved Afghanistan and its people. I found them friendly, warm hearted and welcoming. So much did I enjoy visiting their enchanting country that I named my house Herat after a town in the west of the country. It’s the first major city you reach after crossing from Iran and the contrast in terms of colour, culture and laid-back attitude is palpable. So it was absolutely tragic to see Herat struggling, and failing, to keep the Taliban at bay.

That’s not to say that I am in any way naive about the nature of the Afghani way of living. It’s not the Home Counties. In many ways it’s a sort of ‘Wild East’ where the right to bear arms is taken to an extent which would make the NRA in America look like nanny state proponents of gun control.

Back in the day when I was a visitor it was common for Afghan men, particularly heads of families, to own at least two guns. One an Enfield rifle for the sake of nostalgia, and taking the odd long shot. One a Kalashnikov just in case needs became rather more pressing.

Nor is actual gun use that unusual if push comes to shove. Not an aspect of life there I was comfortable with. My strategy was to try not to give any obvious cause for offence and as a result I received nothing but kindness. But trying to push Afghans around is never a good idea.

Indeed I think the first lesson of statecraft or in any military training ought to be ‘never invade Afghanistan’. Unless you happen to be Alexander the Great.

Doctor Brydon surely told us that. As did the experience of the Soviets when, in some sort of bizarre recreation of the ‘Great Game’, they invaded the country in the late 1970s.

Indeed that’s the reason why my last visit to this fascinating country was in 1979. The next time I travelled down from Europe to India overland I had to divert south through the Baluchistan desert. A slow, dusty and bumpy route that proved to be, but that’s a tale for another day.

The point is that many Afghans fleeing the war with the Russians also headed over the Bolan Pass into Baluchistan. They stayed there for years. Their children were educated there, many in hard-line madrassas. They became radicalised. They became a force for hard-line Islam called ‘the students’, or in the local language, the ‘Taliban’.

Fast forward a bit. The eight-year Soviet occupation was always strongly resented, sparking fierce resistance from the Mujahideen and, among others, the liberal and reluctant warlord Ahmad Massoud.

When the Red Army withdrew in face of mounting losses in 1989 their hand-picked president, Najibullah, continued in power for three more years. In many ways he did try to reform the country and instil some civil rights but was always hated as a Russian puppet and when the Mujahideen took power in 1992 he had to take refuge in a UN compound.

Four years later the Russian chickens came home to roost even though they themselves had long fled the coop. A chap called Mohamed Omar was declared Leader of the Faithful in the southern town of Kandahar, which incidentally is a corruption of Alexander, the only invader the Afghans seem to have any time for.

Where is Kandahar? At the northern end of the Bolan Pass which runs down to Baluchistan, where all of those young Afghans had been radicalised in those madrassas. What was the military force behind Mohamed Omar? A new and very potent player called the Taliban.

They went to war with the Mujahideen and captured large parts of the country, including Kabul that autumn. They sought out and strung up former president Najibullah.

Fast forward again. In 2001 Al-Qaeda flew planes into the Twin Towers. America was determined to strike back and the Al-Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden, was living in exile in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

The rest is probably well remembered by most. The Taliban driven from power. Many American and British troops killed in action or by improvised explosive devices. The restoration of civil society and some sort of democracy. Millions invested in aid and development projects. Much greater freedom for women. Building up the Afghan military to be able to defend themselves and their country from militants. Now all seemingly in tatters.

Who do I blame? Certainly much of the blame, the prime blame, must fall on the more fanatical power brokers in Afghanistan itself. But I also blame President Biden. Even though if I were American I would probably be a natural Democrat, and I admire much which the new president is doing, I think he got this badly wrong.

Afghanistan was getting quite close to being ‘over the line’. Its defence forces were being slowly strengthened. The ‘hearts and minds war’ against the Taliban was being won. The days of Western blood being spilled had largely passed a few years ago as the American/British military adopted a supportive role instead of engaging in front-line combat.

Now this premature withdrawal risks setting the country back to the dark days of the late 1990s. Taliban dominance but with all-out civil war around the regions. Ethnic group against ethnic group. Sunni against Shia. Province against province. Valley against valley.

I so much hope that I am wrong, but if I am not please don’t blame the ordinary Afghans – even if they flee in our direction. What most of them want from life is absolutely no different to us.