Let's have a cost-benefit analysis of high population

We would like to respond to comments from several senior States members that the way to resolve the island's present economic difficulties is to grow the population.

Given that Guernsey is generally accepted as being over-populated now, we find this difficult to accept. It seems to us that there are a number of underlying issues to be resolved before any real economic improvement can take place.

1. The 'elephant in the room' is zero-10 and the negative effects that have flowed from that decision. The island as a consequence now receives around £100m. less in tax revenue each year. Unless and until the deficit situation created by that States decision is addressed and more companies trading in Guernsey pay their fair share of the tax burden, the island's tax situation cannot be returned to surplus.

Failure to address this tax inequality will result in the main burden of tax continuing to fall on the working population.

2. Increasing the population before any proper cost-benefit analysis has been carried out risks making a bad situation worse. We were deeply concerned to learn that no such costings had been carried out. This was openly admitted by members of the Population Working Group at one of our public meetings.

For example, if the net tax paid by any individual and his family moving to the island is less than they cost the community for services such as their children's education, family healthcare, increased demand on housing etc. then they are in effect a burden not a benefit to taxpayers. We ask where is this economic gain some States members are talking about?

3. The Housing minister has stated that help to enable first-time buyers to get access to affordable housing is forthcoming. While welcome, this misses the point.

If the States implement their decision to remove the TRP protection for lower-cost housing, increased population numbers will inevitably mean increased demand for housing. How will islanders seeking affordable housing be better off?

GLORIA DUDLEY OWEN and GRAHAM GUILLE.