Alderney problems with demographics are complicated

Allister Langlois waved a report to prove they had written something, but hinted we wouldn't want to read it all. He'd give us a metaphor, he said: the ship had cast off and they'd managed to start the engine, but they weren't sure they could get out of the harbour without hitting the pier head. That didn't inspire confidence.

Gavin St Pier said they hadn't needed to write the report, but chose to do so anyway. He ruled out the possibility of tax rises or a two-band system, said there was no appetite for changing corporation tax and told us we needed a 28% cap on public spending. He couldn't tell us why we needed a fixed spending target, or why 28% was better than 26 or 30. He couldn't even tell us why spending shouldn't rise a bit when times are hard and fall a bit when things get better. What he did tell us was that he and his pals wanted a cap and this was it.

Given that target, universal benefits would be scrapped, medical costs would rise, so too would the age at which we received States pension. Benefits would fall. They had written some tax breaks into the system, he said, but the whole report would be modified and amended so they might get taken out again. There might even be direct taxes on purchases. In fact there probably would, or maybe not. He didn't know.

The problem, they told us, was demographic. People were getting older so they had to have less pension and work longer. Medical care would have to be made more expensive and fixed targets had to be set.

So let's talk about demography.

Many people well past retirement age work and work. They don't always earn much – they volunteer to keep things running, or support people less vigorous than themselves. Others nowhere near retirement age have physical or mental health problems and cannot work. There's no evidence that increasing health care costs is going to change that.

If the ones that can't work don't get pensions, then the States will have to support them in other ways. If the ones that keep working have to earn a living, they won't be available to help their neighbours and the States will have to step in. If medical costs rise, illnesses will be treated later. People will become sicker and the costs of treating them will rise. There won't be any bottom-line saving; the costs will just be shifted from one budget head to another.

Here in Alderney the demographic problem is complicated by very much lower average incomes and higher freight costs than in Guernsey. Our kids, once their education is complete, aren't welcome to live in Guernsey. If they can't find jobs here they have to leave the Bailiwick. Not only are our older people taking longer to die, our younger people are leaving the island, most of them permanently. Those two States chaps listened politely and made sympathetic noises. Demographic policies, Gavin said, are controversial so they'd decided to ignore the demographic dimension and solve the problem with targets, caps and cuts.

At the end of the meeting Gavin and Allister came up with a new metaphor. No longer were they reckless buccaneers who half expected the ship of state to run aground, now they were brave visionaries who had grasped a whole bunch of political nettles. Me, I hope the people of this Bailiwick tell them precisely where to put it.

NICK WINDER,

Alderney.

Address withheld.