Politicians must answer the big questions facing the island first

Even when Eric does begin to play, Previn insists he is playing 'all the wrong notes'. Eric doesn't take the criticism well, informing him: 'I'm playing all the right notes – but not necessarily in the right order.'

I am reminded of this when I see all the challenges our politicians have made that affect this wonderful island of ours. They have questions on housing, education, tax, traffic, health, social funding, population, waste and many more.

They have many of the right questions, but they are not answering them in the right order. Let me try to explain why I think that.

I was once privileged to meet Allan Leighton. Allan is a very successful businessman who was involved at the highest levels in Asda, Wal-Mart, Royal Mail and Lastminute.com, amongst others. He has advised Sir Philip Green, Rupert Murdoch, Sir James Dyson and Guy Hands. I asked Allan Leighton what is his most important business lesson. He answered, 'Decide what you or your company should look like in 10 years and create the environment to make it happen.'

Our island faces many challenges but the most important challenge is dealing with uncertainty. We do not know what most people wish our island to look like in 10 years' time. In order to do that we need to canvass opinion and consult with the electorate and also take some serious economic and financial advice on what are the sustainable options available to us.

We need to understand that there are various economic constraints which we have and we need to decide how these can be balanced in order to create a social environment that will satisfy the majority and effectively care for the elderly and less-abled in our society.

These economic constraints consist of land, labour and capital (or financial ability). We have limited land geographically and have limited capital financially, but labour can be increased or decreased dependent on the way government creates the right climate and conditions for business to thrive or alternatively expire.

The first question islanders need to answer must be, 'What do we want our island to look like in 10 years' time?'

Ideally we would not like to see a more populated island but we would want to enjoy improved distribution of wealth and social services. However we all know that the attempts of government to reduce public spending without impacting services have not happened and are unlikely to happen significantly in the next 10 years, as politicians have no stomach to dramatically reduce a civil service which accounts for some 65% of the island's expenditure.

Added to that, neither are many islanders content to accept a lower standard of education, health and social services.

At the same time our ageing population is making the care of our elderly and less-able a task that cannot be sustained. The reserves are spent and borrowing can be made but it can only be repaid from future taxes. The sooner politicians and the population accept these realities, the better we can make decisions to deal with solving our island's issues in the most effective and compassionate manner.

It is becoming very clear and unfortunately inevitable that there has to be some growth in the working population to generate tax income and encourage local spending in order to support our island's infrastructure and our non-working population in the future. The question is, how much are we prepared to allow our working population to increase? This is the debate we urgently need to have. Once we have answered such a big question, we can then look at the other questions in the right order.

We cannot decide on the best education system until we know what level of working population we are aiming for. It is pointless deciding on the number of houses we need and who can live in them until we know what level of working population we are aiming for. We cannot decide on the taxation policy until we know which area of global business we need to encourage here to fulfil our population target.

The business opportunities are out there, but only by us creating the right supporting infrastructure can we encourage businesses to set up in Guernsey.

Similarly the traffic policy should be set based upon defined population levels, which obviously affects the desire for car use, which many cities already have decided needs to be managed. Again our policy on waste, social support, housing licences, health and many others is dependent on answering the big question on what we expect this island to look like in the future.

I am not saying we stop working on these other issues facing the island, but we cannot make definitive decisions on building a new school, closing another, deciding how many houses need to be built etc. until we are clear as to why we have to make such a decision.

Population levels affect every aspect of the many questions facing today's government. Trying to answer each of these without being clear on our expectation of population levels and associated population dynamics – the split between working and non-working and those in education – is a wasted effort. Once we have clarified where we are content to be in 10 years' time and what level of population supports that we then create an environment of challenge, absolutely, but most of all certainty and understanding. To paraphrase former US secretary of state Donald Rumsfeld, we have reduced our 'known unknowns'.

Why is certainty and understanding so important? People hate uncertainty whether they are young or old, in education, employees, managers, investors or pensioners. Business despises uncertainty and business leaders aim to minimise uncertainty. Businesses and people leave the island because they are unsure of where the island is heading and direction seems to be clearer elsewhere and fits better with their own aspirations.

Other geographical areas are making a clearer case and many have shown that they are more in control of their destiny or in a stronger position to succeed. They appear to provide more certainty. Unless this island starts providing more certainty, businesses will unfortunately decide to leave or close.

Government cannot make the population increase or business thrive but they make it possible for it to happen. They need to establish the economic and social conditions which enable this to be not just possible but highly probable.

If we carry on playing all the right notes in the wrong order, we will not get out of the mess this island is experiencing.

Our politicians must bring clarity where there is uncertainty, leadership and direction where there is none, and maybe we will start respecting them more. We will recognise the music they are trying to play and hopefully most of us will start humming the same tune.

PHILIP DUQUEMIN,

Address withheld.