This is the time for the big reset

A vaccine or effective treatment may be 18 months away, so our lives are effectively on hold until late 2021, bearing in mind the risk of reinfection and virus mutation, perhaps requiring a renewed and even stricter lockdown.

Dealing with the health situation is obviously the first priority. Then comes the huge task of repairing the economy and sorting out the finances; this could take many years and will in part reflect changing attitudes and habits among the public. Some retailers and small businesses were in difficulty well before the pandemic and may decide to call it a day. Other businesses may use the pandemic as their reason to reduce their workforce or enforce pay cuts, while a number of sole traders and self-employed, although solvent, have no reserves or liquidity to weather the crisis. Business overheads are not cancelled during the lockdown and any loan received, even with generous terms, has to be repaid at some time. So unemployment will increase. Business recovery will be slow and patchy, and some sectors will not return to pre-pandemic levels.

Lockdown gives the opportunity (without real choice really) for families to take stock and to reflect on the problems recently experienced and on what the immediate future has in store for them. Some will have adjusted quite quickly to the new lockdown restrictions while others will realise that life is surprisingly bearable even with only basic commodities available, and that minimalist living is not such a bore after all (another positive attitude in the context of global warming). A few people will no doubt have time to discover the convenience of e-commerce and may even get hooked on internet shopping, offering both diversity and competitive prices. On the work front, many will be rightly concerned at the lack of job security, even among large solvent employers with no liquidity problem and with a captive market.

This period of great uncertainty and lack of public confidence is only beginning and will not induce people to return any time soon to their previous spending habits. Whether out of necessity or out of choice, people may decide that their immediate priority must be to build up their savings to better prepare themselves in this uncertain and volatile period. Small retailers and businesses could suffer most from this very fluid situation.

Our public finances will face a major upheaval too. Most governments recognise the necessity to keep their productive infrastructure ‘ticking over’ in order to facilitate a gradual economic recovery. Financial assistance takes various forms, such as employees’ wage subsidies, cancellation of business rates and taxes, reductions in rent and utilities bills, grants and loans, etc., all subject of course to conditions to avoid fraudulent claims. In Guernsey, prudent budgeting, as managed so successfully by the States, is no longer a priority, or achievable. Incurring debt to keep people in employment is the new normal and least costly States policy, in terms of social cohesion, economic activity and future tax intake. Yet, an increase in unemployment over the next few months may indicate that (repayable) loans to businesses are not sufficient and that more or different assistance is required. Probably unavoidable, but catastrophic for the island’s finances.

A surprising but not unexpected bonus of the lockdown is the great reduction in air pollution resulting from reduced exhaust emissions. Although this benefit will sadly be of limited duration, it will perhaps encourage people to work harder on improving the daily traffic congestions by reducing the use of private cars, and favouring public transport and electric vehicles.

Transportation and logistics have also suffered from the lockdown, and brought to light the weakness of the supply chain leading to temporary food shortages, panic buying and food stockpiling. Where food is concerned, the island is totally unprepared to deal with supply disruption lasting more than two or three days, as experienced with sea crossing cancellations during adverse weather conditions.

It is only a matter of time before we experience real, lasting food shortages; yet supermarkets’ ‘just-in-time’ policy of food supply provides no storage and no buffer – a worrying shortcoming for an island community at the mercy of unpredictable disruptions in sea and air transport. It is therefore understandable that we experience the occasional panic buying. Rather than criticising, our government should look again into this situation and help food importers reintroduce island-based food storage. Islanders should also be encouraged to turn every piece of overgrown parcel of land into vegetable gardens, including the creation of community gardens or plots for town and flat dwellers.

The current pandemic is the latest of a number of increasingly frequent epidemics and natural disasters (ebola, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, forest fires, earthquakes, inundations, etc.) afflicting different areas of the globe. People – wrongly – attribute these events as the result of man-made activities, or global warming, etc., but this is another subject for another day.

It is interesting to note a recent article in the Jerusalem Post which refers to a survey carried out in late March in the USA by McLaughlin & Associates (a polling company) among 1,000 American voters. According to that survey, a stunning 44% of Americans polled said they see the global coronavirus pandemic and economic meltdown as signs of coming judgment and a wake-up call to turn back to faith in God. Everybody will have their pet belief, but we are living in the times of the gentiles, and famines are coming.

For now, the best advice is to ‘stay home, protect our front-line staff, save lives’. Everyone recognises the huge sacrifice of our front-line staff, doctors, nurses and care workers. Our appreciation is expressed in different ways, including the clapping of hands. But without real action, this type of appreciation remains superficial – cheap, even.

A lasting, meaningful gesture and equitable way of showing how much we value our nurses and care workers is to give them the salary upgrades they are entitled to and which are no more than a recognition of their long training and qualifications. We, the Guernsey people, have been campaigning for this for months. This current crisis has shown yet again the dedication of our front-line staff, who are working in stressful and traumatic conditions and risking their lives, quite literally, to save our lives. Shame on our deputies who continue to ignore the wishes of their voters. To be clear, budgetary constraints went out of the window the day the lockdown was imposed. The deputies are out of touch and have no valid excuse.

PHIL DUPRE

Address withheld.