Act now on emissions

She is correct when she states that since 1990 we have reduced emissions by 29%. This equates to a reduction of 165kt CO2 annually, but this is not a true reflection of our current trajectory. 128kt of the reduction (80%) is the direct result of the cable link to France in 2001, which was a one-off win that can never be repeated.

I am not sure upon what information the optimistic assessment is based, but my analysis of the latest ‘Guernsey Annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin’ referred to in the article does not in my opinion give any grounds for reassurance. Or complacency.

If we consider the recent progress in emissions reduction (i.e. since 2001), average reduction is relatively stable at less than 0.9%/year, so unless there is a significant change, as was reported in PWC’s ‘Guernsey Hydrocarbon Demand Forecast’ dated February 2017, we have no hope of meeting the targets set (or probably getting anywhere near them).

If the response to Covid by different jurisdictions taught us anything, it is that those who succeed are the ones who take the threat seriously and act decisively.

The only hope we have of getting anywhere near the targets we have set ourselves is to de-carbonise the electricity supply, along with both the transport and building heating infrastructure, as outlined in the Sustainable Energy Association’s policy paper ‘Achieving Net Zero: Regulating the Decarbonisation of Heat’ dated January 2020.

My analysis of the 2018 figures for Guernsey is shown below.

This suggests to me that even allowing for increased efficiencies, in order to de-carbonise local transport and heating, a very conservative estimate is that electricity supply on Guernsey will at least need to double. This will obviously require a massive investment by GE in our electrical infrastructure.

In order to limit the increase in demands on the electrical infrastructure, it is widely recognised that heat pumps have a significant role to play, but in Guernsey, we have very restrictive policies with regard to noise limitations (that do not apply to oil boilers) as set out in Planning Advice Note 6. This is probably the most significant single factor which prevents many home owners installing them. A quick, low-cost win which will help Guernsey reduce CO2 emissions would be to review or revoke Planning advice Note AN6.

A much harder nut to crack is how we increase electrical capacity and de-carbonise the supply and this needs strong political action, which I trust we can rely on our new deputies to deliver.

Instead of patting ourselves on the back for the benefits of carbon reductions obtained by our predecessors’ actions a generation ago in deciding to invest in the French cable link, we need to decide whether we want the next generation to be struggling with the consequences of our inaction, or (if we do act) allow them to build on this generation’s decisive actions and step changes towards meeting the targets.

RICHARD SPINNEY