Guernsey Press

It could be a mistake to open borders so soon

ANYONE suggesting that Public Health haven’t dealt with the pandemic well should take a look at other jurisdictions around the world, both near and far, to see quite how bad it could’ve been. Understandably some of the decisions have been unpleasant (two lockdowns, travel restrictions, prolonged isolation requirements on arrival which preclude most people coming or going), but unlike most places we have been able to live with minimal restrictions day to day.

Published

The successes we’ve had so far makes what I’m about to say harder. I’m worried that the plans announced in the briefing last Friday are a mistake. Before being misrepresented, I’m categorically not saying that testing and isolation requirements should stay in place forever, or necessarily even medium term.

The concerns I have are twofold, firstly the 1 July time-frame and secondly the new travel categories.

By 1 July our vaccination programme should have progressed far enough that all adults will have received at least one dose of vaccine. Presumably the date was at least in part chosen because of this. To me, the fact that the decision has been made to significantly liberalise our travel regime before all adults have received both doses risks creating antagonism between those who are (or will be) fully vaccinated by the time the new rules come into effect and those who are not yet fully protected. Obviously due to the required prioritisation those who won’t be fully protected by the time rules are relaxed will generally be younger – as an example, I’m in my late-20s and I’m booked in for my second dose in early July. The first bone of contention I can see is that earlier on in the pandemic, when Guernsey Together was the key mantra, we were truly in it together. During both lockdowns, although young people were generally at less risk, we stayed away from our work places, sometimes risking financial loss, to eliminate the virus. Since March 2020 everyone arriving into the island has faced the same restrictions regardless of their age or vaccination status. The young have sacrificed along with everyone else and now it seems that the powers that be are willing to open up to travel before we’ve had a chance to be fully protected. Although I bow to superior knowledge from the Public Health team on subjects of epidemiology, I presume there may also be a public health benefit in ensuring that as many people as possible are fully vaccinated as well. In real world examples where vaccination rates are relatively high, growing case numbers can be attributed to the younger, less vaccinated age groups. In Bolton, a recent hot spot of UK Covid activity, cases per 100,000 for the 0-24 age group jumped from being consistently under 100 during April to around 700 in mid-May. This was in contrast to the rate in the well-vaccinated over-60s barely peaking around 100 at the same time. The counterpoint will of course be that the younger you are, the less at risk of serious disease from Covid you are as well, but to the layman it still looks like transmission among younger age groups could pose a significant risk, as well as creating an age-based divide between those who are fully vaccinated and those that aren’t. Presumably by 1 August most, if not all, adults would have received their second dose, and had enough time for their immune response to kick in. A delay of one month to lifting of isolation requirements wouldn’t represent a significant increase on the 15 months we will have already had by the end of June.

The new travel categories, specifically the new blue category for arrivals from the Common Travel Area with no isolation or even testing requirement, also caught my eye. In what appears to be a departure from the previous approach, regions of the UK, Ireland, Jersey and the Isle of Man will no longer automatically have more stringent restrictions imposed on travellers if cases in their area flare up.

Deputy Soulsby did explain that there will remain a Public Health override and used the example that Ireland would probably have restrictions imposed on it under current numbers, but unlike the current categories, we don’t know at what point that override would be triggered and what restrictions imposed. For a disease that has shown little regard for political borders, we seem to have decided that for political/economic/cultural reasons that the CTA deserves a special category of its own with far less surveillance for travellers arriving in Guernsey. Many jurisdictions within the CTA famously have a questionable track record when it comes to their handling of the pandemic. Although removal of any isolation requirement for blue category arrivals may not be an issue in itself, and in time might be able to be extended to green arrivals as well, the total removal for any arrival testing appears to be a significant change.

In March 2020 the head of the WHO remarked that ‘test, test, test’ was their key message, followed up by Dr Brink in ensuring that our on-island testing regime was implemented and then expanded as time went on. It now seems strange that we have decided that testing will no longer be required for the vast majority of arriving passengers. Even if no isolation was required, presumably a test on arrival would at least give the contact tracing team a head start in the event of future outbreaks as well as providing an indication of how many cases we are actually importing from the CTA.

Hopefully we are nearing the end of the pandemic and life can return to almost total normality. However, we surely wouldn’t want to move too quickly just as we’re nearing the finish line and end up having to take backwards steps once more, especially if any new restrictions we had to impose were targeted at those younger age groups which weren’t yet fully vaccinated.

For the sake of a few tweaks to the plan (a modest delay to the effective date, testing for all arrivals once more and removal of the special treatment for the CTA regardless of case numbers) hopefully we can keep up the fantastic work.

AUTHOR WORKS IN THE TRAVEL TRADE LOCALLY