Guernsey Press

Guernsey is going to lose its grip on virus

I FEEL compelled to write to you as I am unhappy with the plan to open the doors of Guernsey to visitors from the Common Travel Area who have had both vaccinations with no testing or restrictions.

Published

I have already emailed Public Health and have had the following reply on 1 June:

‘Public Health keeps abreast of the changes in the UK and worldwide constantly and will not hesitate to override a decision IF there is reason for concern.

‘Please be assured that we all work in the interests of the people we serve to the very best of our capacity and knowledge.’

Since then the Delta variant of Covid has taken hold in the UK.

I note that Ireland is ‘not in a position’ to restore the Common Travel Area due to ‘real concerns’ about the prevalence of the Indian variant in Britain, Leo Varadkar has said – according to the Guernsey Press 28 May.

They are obviously being more cautious than us. (I do realise they have had fewer people vaccinated and itself has more than 100 cases per 100,000 population – so far staying stable.)

In the Guardian: ‘More than 90% of Covid cases in the UK are now down to the coronavirus Delta variant as the total number of confirmed cases passed 42,000.’

The Public Health England report further revealed that cases of the virus are doubling between every 4.5 and 11.5 days, depending on the region of England, and that it has about a 60% increased risk of household transmission compared with the Alpha variant.

Of the 42 deaths recorded in England within 28 days of a positive test involving the Delta variant, 23 were in unvaccinated people, with 12 among those who were fully vaccinated and seven among people who had had one dose.

That figure relating to people who have had two vaccinations and died seems ominous.

They also state the UK R number is now 1.2 to 1.4.

I realise Public Health Guernsey may have better statistics.

To quote Guernsey’s CCA media briefing: ‘Prevalence levels are continuing to rise quickly across many UK regions.

‘Data focusing specifically on the Delta variant is also showing that it is more transmissible than other variants, and the efficacy of a single dose of a vaccine is reduced significantly (approx. 17%).

‘The reduction in efficacy of the vaccine after both doses is however less severe (approx. 8%).

‘Data is continuing to emerge – however, these initial findings are of concern and the CCA has agreed it is right to make changes to the plans for travel from 1 July and to continue to review the situation every two weeks.'

I have two self-catering units and am concerned that visitors may come who carry the virus and there is no mechanism to catch those.

I seem to remember Dr Brink saying some weeks ago that, regardless of whether people have had a test before travel, it was compulsory to be tested on arrival in Guernsey as it helped the track and trace system.

I realise that this does not pick up people who contacted Covid en route.

I realise that we cannot negate the risk forever. But for all visitors to have a PCR Covid test on arrival, and to have to isolate until that result (less than 24 hours and not onerous) would be a reasonable compromise. My question was asked at the last media briefing as to whether people could choose to have such a test, even if it is not compulsory, and pay £25 and Deputy Ferbrache stated it had not been decided.

It may also be cynical to suggest that there may be certain people who are at high risk of having the virus, or even have mild symptoms, who may elect to visit Guernsey, where life carries on in a relatively normal way, knowing that no one is going to check them on arrival at our borders. It only takes one such person to put us back in a dire situation.

Why should we treat the common travel area differently from any other area in the world – it is after all a historical link made for political reasons?

Some parts are currently in category 2, many in 3 and some in 4. And, more worrying, numbers in some areas are rising significantly.

Fully vaccinated people coming from parts of the USA, for example, may come from an area where for example 57% of the population has been fully vaccinated – Guernsey 52% I believe). They have to isolate for seven days and have two tests.

I realise the CCA has a lot of work to do and there are pressures pulling in all sorts of direction (I would not choose to have their job), but it seems that, after managing matters here mostly brilliantly, it seems Guernsey is finally going to lose its excellent grip on this virus, just when cases are escalating in the UK. And that we will end up with more cases and more deaths and more stringent rules once again and even a third lockdown.

SUE TAYLOR