Now is not the time to ‘open up’
IN THE Guernsey Press of 24 June you report that currently 27% of our population over 16 years of age have had only one jab and 16% have not had any jab. ITV Channel News of 23 June gave the statistics for Jersey which was that, of the present 81 active cases, 13 persons had received only one dose, 11 had had two doses – and of which two doses had been given less than 14 days before, while eight doses had been given 14 days prior to being infected. Now, one must take into account the following statistics published by Public Health England based on actual cases, stating that the AstraZeneca vaccine’s effectiveness against infection with the delta/India variant is 35% after one dose and 66% after two doses.
Now do the maths. 43% of Guernsey’s population over 16 years of age currently have either no protection (16% not vaccinated) or 27% have had one dose with only limited protection (estimated at 35% protection after one jab). Add to this equation the information that Jersey’s 81 active cases also includes eight persons who have been doubly vaccinated (10%), despite the fact that the two doses were more than 14 days before being infected. Add in the fact that most of our population have received the AstraZeneca vaccine which even after two doses is only 66% effective against the delta/India variant. Additionally, the fact that the UK is seeing a massive rise in infection cases principally because of the delta variant, which is now the dominant variant with an overall rate presently in England of 175 cases per 100,000 people. European countries have closed or are considering closing their borders to British residents because of the prevalence of this variant when, at the same time, we are proposing to open our borders to those from the CTA, albeit those doubly vaccinated. Taking all of this into account, it is difficult to understand why the CCA consider the risk of ‘opening up’ as minimal, and furthermore claim that ‘modelling’ indicates that postponing the opening to mid-August would have an ‘extremely small effect’. For one thing a postponement would allow time for an increase in the numbers receiving first and second dose. You report that the CCA is keen to assure islanders that under the 1 July changes the likelihood of a third lockdown remains very low, although they warn that there would be Covid cases in the island in the future.
I would like to refer them to the article in the Guernsey Press on 4 February 2021 which reported the rise in cases in Guernsey by 36 to 329 and with 910 in mandatory self-isolation. It only took one family being infected with a new, more transmissible variant at that time to force our second lockdown.
Please do not underestimate the risks – it is better to err on the side of caution and allow us to continue enjoying our present freedom of not wearing masks and of not practising social distancing and also being able to eat in our many excellent restaurants. We have gained so much up to now from our prudent approach and if we are patient we should be able to ‘open up’ when conditions support it – which is not now.
WILLIAM B. MORRIS
GY6 8ES