If you want to see what endless house-building will bring – look at Monaco

Simply put – there are not enough houses physically on the market to satisfy current demand, especially at the lower end of the market.

This is nothing new.

I vividly recall seeing similar newspaper headlines on this very subject, when I first came to the island in the mid-nineties: ‘We must build more affordable houses’.

In reality, there is no answer to this conundrum – everybody needs to recognise, if they do not do so already, that this problem is insoluble.

Building more houses will merely satisfy demand temporarily. When these have been occupied, there will still be more people who want to live in such an attractive place as Guernsey. And the sons and daughters of these new house occupiers will also eventually want somewhere independent to live, once they have reached the age when they are ready to leave home.

It is this that is constantly fuelling such high demand for properties in Guernsey, and it is not going to go away at any time in the foreseeable future.

If you want to see what endless house-building will bring to the island, you only have to look at Monaco – already a veritable concrete jungle.

There is another aspect to rabid house-building.

Where are these new houses going to get their energy and water from? How will the island cope with the huge increase in vehicular traffic of all kinds that such new house occupancy will invariably create? We only have so much room on this lovely rock of ours.

How will we dispose of all the poo, already an emotive issue?

Trying to legislate to ‘tweak’ or distort the housing market in favour of first-time buyers also won’t work.

Markets are their own animals, and will do what they will, despite our feeble efforts to manipulate them otherwise. If demand is suppressed artificially one way, it will invariably find a way to emerge somewhere else in a different format; and this will cause the market to find a new balance, irrespective of whatever is done otherwise to avoid or prevent this.

That is the nature of markets the world over. Like stock, commodity and money markets, the Guernsey housing market is just too big to be manipulated or controlled for very long.

So what is to be done about such an intractable situation?

By all means carry out a sensible building programme – this cannot stand still. Also, ensure through planning regulations that first-time buyers are well catered for, if necessary. The Guernsey Housing Association is a wonderful help here.

When looking at building more houses everywhere, please, please – States of Guernsey – look first at what you are going to do with all of the extra traffic, and how you are going to create all of the new infrastructure that will be required to cater for all of these ‘new’ people, before scattering planning permissions everywhere like confetti. Otherwise, you are surely putting the cart before the horse.

But do not build houses everywhere, shoehorning property in as many spaces as possible, at the highest density that the ground will allow, ad infinitum.

If you do this, you are merely kicking the problem down the road – a familiar scenario, here in Guernsey. You will not solve it.

Please recognise that house-building cannot be endless.

If necessary, have the courage to curtail or stop house-building programmes on new land, and only allow development of existing, brown-field sites. Using derelict greenhouse sites is definitely not the answer. The use of such sites will merely encourage outrageous profiteering. And when all these sites have been built over, what does the States do next?

What to do about the market? Leave it to find its own balance.

I can already hear the howls of anguish from all of those well-wishers and politicians among us. But if we are serious about avoiding turning Guernsey into the next concrete jungle, there is no alternative.

What about our youngsters and those seeking homes here?

If, sadly, they cannot afford to obtain a property, either by buying one or through rental, then they will simply have to go elsewhere to live. I am the first to say that I dislike such a solution, but this is tough love, and how else do you deal with this situation?

What about all of those people of working age who are needed to look after all of us ‘oldies’?

If they cannot live anywhere, we will just have to do without them, cope with what we’ve got, and cut our cloth according to its width at any moment in time. I’d love to have five-star care. But if it is simply not available, or I cannot afford it, I will just have to make the best of what I have got; like people have had to do everywhere in the world for centuries.

I am extremely aware of my own mortality: it’s just a question of how and when – not if. I have learned – sometimes the hard way – to deal with such difficult situations to the best of my modest ability, to look after myself, and to use whatever medical and care facilities are available to me – and which I can afford. Hopefully, other people will take responsibility for their own lives accordingly.

This is not an isolated problem, unique to Guernsey. All over the world, governments are wrestling with the problems of an ever-growing and ageing population, and how to cater for them all. Just look at the migrant situation in the UK at the moment to understand what I mean by this.

People will look at my views and describe them as antiquated, old fashioned, out-of-date, harsh, chauvinistic, selfish, and unrealistic.

The truth is very often like that – but try as you might, you cannot avoid it.

Life does not owe us a living. The sooner we stop these useless debates on pointless house-building, the sooner we can all take responsibility for our own lives, and those of our families. And I suggest that the sooner we recognise this harsh reality – however much we would wish otherwise – the better and happier we will live.

MEYRICK SIMMONDS