Trade deficit should be addressed before participating in negotiations

Guernsey runs a large trade deficit with the UK, which should be a concern if Guernsey is regarded as separate economic jurisdiction from the UK. Alternatively, if it is viewed as an economic appendage of the UK like Wales, Cornwall or Devon, the figures can be ignored.

Total trade in goods and services (exports plus imports) between the UK and Guernsey was £4.1bn. in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023, a decrease of 0.9% or £36m. in current prices from the four quarters to the end of Q2 2022.

Of this £4.1bn.:

l Total UK exports to Guernsey amounted to £3.1bn. in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023 (an increase of 19.4% or £504m. in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q2 2022);

l Total UK imports from Guernsey amounted to £953m. in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023 (a decrease of 36.2% or £540m. in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q2 2022).

The figures for Jersey are better: Total trade in goods and services (exports plus imports) between the UK and Jersey was £8.2bn. in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023, an increase of 31.8% or £2bn. in current prices from the four quarters to the end of Q2 2022.

Of this £8.2bn.:

l Total UK exports to Jersey amounted to £4.3bn. in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023 (an increase of 24.5% or £846m. in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q2 2022);

l Total UK imports from Jersey amounted to £3.9bn. in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023 (an increase of 40.8% or £1.1bn. in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q2 2022).

Both Crown Dependencies need to determine how to address their trade deficit, on the basis they regard trade deficits with concern, before they seek a place at the negotiating table alongside the UK government.

Robert McDowall