The risks surrounding global warming cannot be ignored
SINCE the start of the industrial era, the global average temperature has not ceased to climb, reaching over 1.1C. This represents an unprecedented speed in the fluctuation of global temperature. Indeed, Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.06C on average per decade since 1850, but more worryingly, the rate of warming since 1982 is more than three times as fast, with a currently projected 0.2C rise per decade. The less than 200-year period preceding this year cannot be attributed to anything of natural origin, it is man-made. Over the 10,000 years preceding the industrial age, since the global temperature reached ‘modern’ levels, the most the temperature deviated was by 0.5C, the fastest it would make that change was roughly over a thousand-year period, and it would come back down. The Earth has made close to double that deviation since the 20th century, and is on track to make (minimum) quadruple that deviation by the end of this century. More importantly, this variation is going in one direction only, its going up.
Let us understand specifically how this change in temperature is occurring. Human activities have caused global warming, through the emission of greenhouse gases. Those greenhouse gases are, amongst others, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride. Those gases, naturally and unnaturally emitted, when released into the atmosphere, create a blanket that helps trap heat, much like the glass of a greenhouse. It is, when natural, a necessary and healthy phenomenon, the problem arises when an exponential amount of greenhouse gas is released into the atmosphere. Let us concentrate on carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Whilst CO2 is the gas that is the most released into the atmosphere by man-made activity, it is not proportionally the most dangerous. Indeed, methane is about 28 times more dangerous than CO2, and nitrous oxide 298 times more dangerous. And to give an idea, for example, humans have contributed to around a third (142ppm) of the CO2 currently in the Earth’s atmosphere (420ppm). But whilst human-produced greenhouse gases may not necessarily represent a large amount of its total composition in the atmosphere, the percentage of a substance is irrelevant to how dangerous it is. The fact is, human-produced greenhouse gas emissions have created an imbalance in the natural carbon cycle.
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5C during the 21st century, and make it harder to limit warming below 2C. Some future changes are unavoidable and irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Adaptation options that are feasible and effective today will become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming. Limiting human-caused global warming requires net-zero CO2 emissions. Cumulative carbon emissions, until the time of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions and the level of greenhouse gas emission reductions this decade, largely determine whether warming can be limited to 1.5C or 2C. All global-modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C, involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. Global net-zero CO2 emissions are reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively.
Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are also disproportionately affected. The likelihood of abrupt and irreversible changes increases with higher global warming levels. Similarly, the probability of low-likelihood outcomes associated with potentially very large adverse impacts increases with higher global warming levels. Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards. These adverse impacts will affect water scarcity, food production, health, infrastructure and ecosystem structure. With the rise in unbearable living conditions, the number of climate refugees will not cease to increase, and natural resources will decrease.
The scientific opinion on the matter is unanimous. Over 99% of peer-reviewed scientific literature found that climate change was human-induced. There had however been strides made to muddy the waters in these fields in the ‘80s and ‘90s with sponsored research to confuse the public and to lobby heavily against ongoing research on the topic of global warming. The major entity responsible was the global climate coalition, a US-based fossil fuel denialist lobbyist group that opposed the scientific evidence and campaigned against regulations and policies aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. They were obviously sponsored by major petrol companies of the time. A following lobby movement would also propagate the idea that natural gas was a clean source of energy – an absurd idea as natural gas releases as much methane currently as the oil industry, and is responsible for 22% of global carbon emissions. On the topic of company lobbyist movements, BP was behind a tactic in the 2000s to redirect responsibility on individuals using the carbon footprint calculator, to hide their responsibility.
The idea that climate change and global warming is a natural phenomenon is also wrong. Climate cycles last around 100,000 years, and over the last 10,000 years, the climate has been relatively stable. But this stability is faltering, and the Earth is heating up at its fastest rate in at least 2,000 years. In fact, the last 10 years have been the warmest on record. Carbon dioxide levels are at their highest in 2,000,000 years, while two other greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide, are at their highest in 800,000 years. The climate today is changing faster than humans, plants and animals can adapt.
The responsibility behind global warming, cannot be all blamed on larger countries like China and India that produce a lot of carbon emissions. Per person they in fact produce fewer emissions than the likes of the USA, and if they produce so much it is also because a lot of the products purchased in the West are manufactured there. We effectively offset our carbon footprints to those countries. And this is without considering the fact that we have been polluting for a much longer time.
No, in fact we produce in the West, at the very least, the equivalent to the global average of around five tonnes of carbon equivalent emissions per person, and necessarily far more than the global median. Guernsey and the West pollute more than most of the planet. The objective set by the IPCC is two tonnes of carbon equivalent emissions per person. We need to more than half our emissions.
None can simply deny the human nature of the causes of global warming, it is an unequivocal fact that, mainly through greenhouse gas emissions, mankind has caused an unprecedented and unnaturally rapid augmentation of the average global surface temperature. Denying this information can no longer even be called misinformation, with the knowledge that current science unanimously provides us with, to deny the human nature of global warming is to actively spread disinformation. And the risks surrounding this phenomenon cannot be ignored.
PAUL MARTINOWSKY