Why immigration is the unrecognised solution

The evidence for this comes from the latest population figures, which show that Guernsey people are heading towards extinction. The last time births exceeded deaths was in 2016. By just nine.

The stats also show that the number of under 15s – effectively the island’s future and its replacement adults and workers – has declined in 13 of the last 14 quarters. So this lack of self-sufficiency in nippers isn’t a blip, it’s a trend.

There is, however, worse. The much-discussed and anticipated demographic time bomb has exploded.

By that I mean the 16-64 age group, the sweet spot, economically active group who pay the bulk of our taxes, has reduced in succession for the full 14 quarters reviewed in the report.

What this means is we have declining numbers of children coming through to fill the jobs that an already reducing number of islanders are currently employed in. And, as we already know, the population is declining.

The other side of this demographic implosion is that we’ve never had so many pensioners. Those aged up to 85 have increased steadily and the ‘super pensioners’, those over 85, have risen on all but three of the 14 quarters we’re looking at.

That, too, is significant because – and no offence intended – our seniors statistically contribute least in money terms to the community while taking out the most in health and other support costs. The price of that is met by those in work and the youngsters coming behind them as the workers of the future.

Hold on though. We’ve already identified that we’re not self-sufficient in children or economically active adults. So what we now realise is that over the decades we’ve been entirely reliant on immigration – guest workers if you will – to mask the unpleasant truth that, left to our own devices, we are an endangered species.

Without people coming in, the future is depopulation, economic decline and escalating age-related health and welfare costs.

To some extent, this isn’t that much of a surprise because insular decline is globally common for many small, isolated islands and there are plenty of examples across the planet, including Alderney. Sark, too, which is so close to being unable to run itself that it risks being administered from Whitehall, something that will have to wait for another column.

But if, I hear you asking, this is to a degree job normal, why put the willies up us with all this doom and gloom stuff?

Because we have 1,100 job vacancies, that’s why. I confirmed the figure with a leading recruitment agency and a senior States source, which is what put me onto this in the first place.

You see, unemployment has fallen to below 300 at about the same time as the president of Employment & Social Security confirmed that the 2,000 or so Latvian guest workers we used to have here has at least halved and may be down to just 500.

Brace yourselves folks: we absolutely rely on immigration for our economic success and survival; we’ve historically treated them poorly and made them feel second class. And now they’ve stopped coming.

And please do not lecture me about ‘Brexit’ or ‘fall in the value of sterling compared to euro’. More than 1,000 Guernsey vacancies in white collar, finance and office jobs demonstrates that’s our problem, not theirs.

So convinced were we that the world owed Guernsey a living that we capped immigration, put up more obstacles to their arrivals, stopped the nine months on-three months off rule that had served so well and managed to collapse the open market as well. In addition, our main air and sea carriers aren’t always exactly visitor-friendly.

On top of that – I express no view on this, merely record the consequences – scrapping the Grammar School has removed one of the big incentives for coming to live and work in Guernsey if you had a young family and a restricted housing licence.

So ponder that 1,100 vacancies figure for a moment. Most are decent, well-paid jobs and there aren’t the locals to fill them. At the same time, no one from outside is filling them.

The significance of that on lost tax take, money in local circulation and demand for housing and transport links is bad enough, but it goes beyond that. Guernsey’s attraction as an international finance centre depends on a number of things, including ease of access and an airline that doesn’t restrict you to a Jiffy bag masquerading as carry-on luggage. It particularly hinges on the ecosystem of skills, talent, technical knowledge and professional disciplines available to do business here.

Weaken that and you weaken the island. Create an environment in which 1,100 vacancies remain unfilled and you encourage businesses here to ask whether they should remain here.

Is this then the gravest post-war challenge faced by the island? After all, it’s upon us now – and that’s before whatever horrors Brexit throws at us as a fragile community.

Running some of this past a financial services veteran, they replied: ‘People don’t want to come here any more. The truth is, Guernsey’s not the nirvana to outsiders that we think it is.’

There you have it. So we must Do Something. And that has to be pursuing economic growth at all costs, removing barriers to doing business here and facilitating travel to the island. We have to, as we did in the oil crisis of 1973 and recession of 1982, which left 1,200 unemployed, learn the difference between essential, desirable and nice to have.

Today, the macro agenda, whatever individual deputies’ personal preferences, has to be selling the island and making it attractive to businesses and staff to live and work here and filling those 1,100 job vacancies. Plus, if we get it right, creating more jobs.

I’d start by suspending the Population and Migration Office for a minimum of two years – yes, calling a temporary halt on all restrictions on people wanting to come here and so try to get some life back into the economy.

Extreme measures? Not compared to the alternative.