Rule No 1... don't take voters for granted

No, I don’t mean Norway’s decision to forego up to three billion barrels of oil and gas off the Lofoten islands – surprising though that is – but that the happy-go-lucky, welfare-wrapped Finns are set to make a nationalist, anti-EU group the country’s most popular political party and demonise immigration.

This, thundered one UK national newspaper, ‘reveals how even Europe’s most stable countries are not immune from populist fury’.

Closer to home, Jeremy Corbyn has become #LocateGuernsey’s No 1 recruitment poster boy with his soak-the-rich policies (copyright Denis Healey circa 1970s) and plan to plunder pension funds and investors by nationalising the water and energy industries at below market value.

Here, the latest Population, Employment and Earnings Bulletin has been held up as evidence that things are pretty good, while an alternative (more realistic?) reading shows that real median earnings fell in each of the previous four quarters, remained unchanged for the last two and then rose by less than one per cent to the end of last year. So we have less money in our pockets. Oh, and the number of employers has fallen again.

Yet the cost of living continues to rise and despite average house prices having fallen nearly 3% compared to the previous quarter – and the Development and Planning Authority’s masterplan to convert the north of the island into a housing estate – buying a property is still out of reach for many.

In short, and with a nod towards 2020’s island-wide general elections, how immune are we from ‘populist fury’?

It’s a question prompted really by Lord Keen, the UK minister responsible for the Crown Dependencies, when he was clutching his head in despair over Sark, and felt the need to set out three tests of good governance.

The key one was ‘to have sufficient capacity and access to the necessary skills, knowledge and experience to govern effectively’, something we can all see might be a problem for a tiny, self-governing community of fewer than 500 souls.

Yet look across the water to Jersey, with a population more than 200 times Sark’s, and it’s apparently struggling to manage its affairs.

That includes making a hash of whether to retain the Bailiff as presiding officer of the Assembly; declaring a ‘climate change emergency’ when it can’t even prevent its potato growers from contaminating water supplies; having an assistant minister who thinks it’s acceptable to try to sack a health professional for refusing to prescribe cannabis; wasting £27m. on not progressing its new hospital project; giving well paid grace-and-favour membership of the Assembly to its parish constables and being unable to decide whether that should be stopped.

Yes, even that most self-assured of the Crown Dependencies is struggling to look competent – plus its economy is flatlining, productivity has plummeted by 28% since 2000 and its States last year spent £7m. more in revenue expenditure than it took in.

By contrast, Guernsey’s doing well. Its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is 22% greater than the equivalent figure in Jersey and – whisper it softly – there are some green shoots emerging that are encouraging for even this Private Frazer and need to be discussed in a forthcoming column.

How much of this, however, is down to the capacity and skills of the Assembly and how much is due to a handful of heroic individuals keeping their eye on the ball while their States colleagues resolutely pursue individual agendas rather than uniting behind the government business plan?

Correct, I am thinking of the 20-18 or thereabouts voting split that’s emerged in the Assembly – and for this reason. Politics in the Western world is in turmoil. People have stopped believing in the old norms, which they feel have let them down. It’s why Mr Corbyn’s suddenly a credible candidate for Prime Minister, why we’re feeling sorry for Theresa May and – the clincher – people are openly saying, ‘you know, perhaps Tony Blair wasn’t that bad after all…’

Which is why people at the coalface of keeping Guernsey on the rails and prosperous in an increasingly hostile world are genuinely concerned that island-wide voting could lead to the island becoming ungovernable.

We’ve already discussed how today’s States members are less willing to be led than back in the days when the old Advisory and Finance and Board of Administration called the shots.

That may not be a bad thing but – as we’re observing in Jersey – are wrecking tactics for the sake of a headline really what small, fragile communities need?

Put that another way and we’re seeing that consensus government is a myth in opposition party Britain and – at best – already under strain here. Does my notional Mrs Sebire to the Vale with too much month for her money plus family, home and work to juggle really believe this Assembly has her best interests at heart?

Or does she look at her people’s representatives on pay packets that she, as a woman statistically in the largest but lowest earning bracket, can only dream of and yearn for change? Does she look at all the efforts expended on minorities and fringe interests and ask what the States have ever done for her?

I get climate change. I used to work with Tim Earl, for heaven’s sake, and became an early adopter. But does talk of banning frozen peas because they come in single use plastic bags improve Mrs Sebire’s life or make the rent any easier to pay?

The real danger as we head towards 2020 is that people lose all faith in government.

Electricity prices are to rise by a whopping 6.8%, the clamour for more carbon taxes will mount at the expense of the less well off yet despite all the advance warning of climate catastrophe, Guernsey still doesn’t have an energy policy or strategy in place.

That essential starting point for any meaningful climate change debate is missing yet islanders will be hounded by their leaders to knee-jerk their way into the path of righteousness regardless of cost or inconvenience.

Consensus government and the stability of Guernsey works only when States members are willing to unite around common causes that islanders can see are broadly sensible, practical and relevant to them and that they can buy into.

The Brexit referendum and subsequent events show voters react unpredictably when they’re angry and feel let down – which is why there are such strong fears this Assembly is unwittingly herding middle Guernsey into extreme voting.