Come on Dave, prove me wrong

HAVING spent several decades gently suggesting in various pieces and publications that Guernsey could become a beacon of how small independent territories govern themselves if only we truly put our minds to it, you can imagine how deeply dispiriting these last couple of years have been.

Far from making progress, we are regressing. Bailiff and Law Officer advice ignored to pursue the hopelessly bungled non-sacking of a troublesome vice-president, the creeping alienation of the island’s incredibly productive charitable third sector from the States, and the slow-motion ruination of the island’s reputation for fiscal prudence.

You might have thought that the unannounced but premeditated severance of the modest £200,000 grant that enabled the Dyslexia Day Centre each year to help more than 80 of the island’s children most in need of intensive literacy skills tuition was the icing on the cake.

After all, the unit has been operating for more than 30 years, has seven specialist teachers and all its pupils are referred to it by the primary schools themselves, recognising what the centre does and the schools’ own limitations in this area.

But no. The ‘just-when-you-thought-it-couldn’t-get-any-worse’ moment came at the weekend when Policy & Resources announced the post-GST debacle sub-committee demanded by the States ‘to identify and review essential community services and to consider whether structural change, cessation, outsourcing and/or commissioning of those services could deliver significant savings…’

These are substantial and potentially community-changing terms of reference. To execute that mandate properly requires considerable and appropriate officer support, access to previous historic reviews and an expert and independent membership of relevant experience to chase down the required changes, savings and efficiencies – and set new benchmark service levels plus indicators of public sector performance.

But what’s this? With the exception of Le Mont Saint Garage’s Dave Beausire and someone else yet to be announced, this supposed taxpayer champion and re-inventer of States’ services is marking its own homework, padded with States members. I imply no criticism of any of them, but this is not an impartial team of technocrats with a track record of delivery.

The chair, P&R’s Dave Mahoney, is a first-time deputy who, in parliamentary terms, has been around barely long enough to locate the fire exits and toilets, let alone know where the bodies are buried. There’s no one with hands-on knowledge of Health or its £212m. budget, or anyone with a background in labour relations, business transformation or IT, or able to lead on the breathtaking advances in artificial intelligence and its impact on bureaucracies or repetitive data-based transactions like benefits and eligibility.

In short, this is set up to fail. To persuade gullible islanders that, see, we told you, the States is so lean and mean it’s awesome and we can’t save a penny more. Now shut up and pay 5% GST on food, fuel and shoes for the kids.

There is a real opportunity here to review what the States does, why, to what level, by whom, and how it’s funded. But since the push for the sub- committee came from the enemy axis of Soulsby and St Pier, it can’t be too successful, can it?

The losers, as ever, are you and I. Destined under the Mark Helyar knee-jerk reaction to GST defeat in the Assembly to later retirement and paying for States services that we thought our tax was supposed to cover. A political punishment beating if ever.

You might recall that transformation consultants Tribal Helm said back in 2009 that ‘departments have, in many instances, been able to provide “gold-plated” services or indeed services where there is no clear rationale at all for government intervention.’

That’s never been tested. Will Deputy Mahoney’s team do so now? Pin each department down on what it does and why, demand what law or constitutional diktat underpins the minimum it can do, and establish what it isn’t doing but should and to what standard/timescale?

Take the trouble to re-read the tribunal of inquiry into the firefighter dispute at Guernsey Airport in May 2009 and you’ll see it lays bare an entire catalogue of areas where the States does things badly, ranging from industrial relations to good governance.

Headed by three of the best minds in Britain, it made 13 recommendations, which then-Bailiff Sir Geoffrey Rowland described as ‘numerous, diverse and far-reaching’. Most, unsurprisingly, have been ignored but remain relevant. In particular, ‘the confrontational, positional style of collective bargaining’ over pay and conditions should end and be replaced with a more collaborative approach. As the expert panel put it: ‘A “partnership” approach involves a greater emphasis on joint working and problem-solving on the basis of shared (and, where practicable, jointly commissioned) data.’

Why is this relevant now and in the context of Deputy Mahoney’s committee allegedly resetting Guernsey’s public services? Because work by consultants McKinsey and others shows that most transformation programmes led by cost-cutting fail. Just 19% were very or completely successful, according to those putting them in place.

‘Our survey found that governments that make big budget cuts simply to “force” efficiency improvements are less likely to deliver and sustain the intended cost reductions,’ McKinsey said. To do better for less, governments needed to build capabilities, harness data and analytics, and reinvest savings.

My point here is that so far most of the savings achieved by the States have been found by staff, not deputies. Not all identified have been accepted by committees, for purely political reasons, and has been stated time and again, meeting targets is entirely voluntary.

Cutting budgets has limited effect because committees aren’t responsible for employing their staff, their contracts of employment or negotiating pay rates. P&R is and acts as employer, and thus has responsibility for around half of all States expenditure, which is on wages and salaries. That’s expected to be £290m. this year, £23m-plus more than 2022, or an increase of nearly £64,000 a day.

Yet none of this appears in scope of the Mahoney Review.

All the evidence shows that successful transformations need sufficient staff to implement change, using savings to invest in further reform and using data and advanced analytics to manage public finances.

All of which says that for this process to succeed it needs to work in partnership with States employees, unions and the Guernsey public, be open minded, independent and prepared to break down existing silo mentalities.

It’s a tall order and I don’t see this sub-committee doing any of that. Which is why I happily wait for Deputy Mahoney to prove me wrong.