What to watch: Republican National Convention begins days after Trump shooting

The Republican National Convention is due to start in Milwaukee, two days after former US president Donald Trump was injured in an assassination attempt.

The violent scenes at his campaign rally in Pennsylvania horrified the country and wider world, and amplified already intense political divisions within the United States.

Mr Trump and his advisers pledged resilience in the face of the attack, with plans for the event in Wisconsin to showcase the former president and his platform as his party formally chooses him to be its nominee for this autumn’s US election.

It was not immediately clear if and how Saturday’s attack would alter the four-day event, which normally has a celebratory atmosphere. Here is what to watch for on the first day of the Republican National Convention:

– Trump expected to announce vice-presidential pick on the RNC’s first day

Mr Trump is expected to announce his vice-presidential pick on the first day of the Convention, he said in an interview on Monday.

It remains unclear whether the shooting on Saturday has changed the former president’s thinking about his potential second-in-command. But he told Fox News Channel host Bret Baier in a call that he planned to make his pick Monday.

– How the attack might affect the speeches

The shooting has drawn bipartisan condemnation and bipartisan calls for unity. But it has also led to some Republicans blaming US President Joe Biden, pointing to his words casting Mr Trump as a threat to democracy.

Some have demanded that prosecutors now drop the four criminal cases Mr Trump faces, including one in which he has been convicted.

As elected officials, politicians and regular Americans address the conference, the question is, which tone will prevail in the aftermath of the attack: Will it make speeches even more fiery, or will calls for calm prevail?

Even before the attempt on Mr Trump’s life, Republicans were mostly aligned with him and planned to show party unity at the convention.

That message is expected to be even more pronounced as the former president and party officials look to project resolve, with Mr Trump saying on Sunday that “it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win”.

The show of unity is a departure from the party’s recent history. In 2016, the first time Republicans formally crowned Mr Trump as their nominee, the opening day of their convention was marked by angry dissent from anti-Trump delegates.

After his turbulent presidency concluded with an insurrection at the US Capitol by his supporters, his political standing seemed weaker than ever when he launched his third White House campaign in 2022. But Mr Trump flattened a field of challengers and his legal problems appear to have galvanised supporters.

Mr Trump’s top three contenders for running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance, Florida senator Marco Rubio and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, are scheduled to speak to Republican delegates at some point this week, according to event organisers.

As per tradition, the person Mr Trump selects as his vice-presidential running mate is expected to give an address on Wednesday night.

Mr Trump has compared his search for a new vice president to his former reality TV show The Apprentice.

Before the shooting, the 2024 race was rocked by upheaval among Democrats after Mr Biden’s shaky debate performance last month led members of his party to stage public interventions, calling for him to bow out as their nominee and raising the real possibility that Mr Trump may be running against someone else.

Republicans have long sought to paint Mr Biden as incompetent, but since Mr Biden’s campaign has become seriously questioned, Mr Trump and the Republicans have stepped up their criticisms of vice president Kamala Harris.

That is expected to continue as the convention kicks off, with more references to “the Biden-Harris administration”.

The theme for Monday’s programme is “Make America Wealthy Once Again”, according to Mr Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee.

Focusing on economics not only makes sense because it can be a key issue for swing voters, but this is an area where Mr Trump might have an edge over Mr Biden when it comes to voter views on job creation and the cost of living.

Look for Republicans to focus on Mr Trump’s proposals to impose higher tariffs on foreign-made goods along with extending the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017, which expire next year.

Mr Biden wants to extend the middle-class tax cuts while raising taxes on highly profitable companies and the richest Americans.

Expect Republicans to also focus on inflation, even though the worst price spike in four decades is steadily fading, according to a new report from the US Labour Department. Mr Biden claims Mr Trump’s tariffs would only aggravate the problem.

– Appeal beyond the base to moderates

As Mr Trump tries to win over undecided and middle-of-the-road voters, one of the key questions is to what degree he will feature some of the far-right characters in his orbit, his lies about his loss in the 2020 election, his calls for retribution against his opponents, and his embrace of those who stormed the US Capitol on January 6 2021.

Key messages of Mr Trump’s third campaign for the White House have included venting his grievances from the past election and decrying his legal problems. He has said that if he is elected president, he expects to pardon many of those arrested or convicted for their roles in the violent siege on the Capitol and has even played a song at his rallies that he recorded with some of the jailed defendants.

Though candidates typically try to moderate their message as they move into the general election, Mr Trump has rarely been typical – or moderate – and some of the messages he has featured in his campaign could be jarring to the voters he is looking to sway.

Mr Biden is getting his own slice of the prime-time spotlight Monday when he appears in an interview on NBC with Lester Holt as he continues to try to reassure members of his party about his candidacy.

He cancelled a planned Monday trip to Texas and his re-election campaign temporarily suspended its television ads after Saturday’s shooting.

But the pause in Democratic counterprogramming to the Republican convention will not last.

After the NBC interview, the President will fly to Nevada, where he will address the NAACP convention in Las Vegas on Tuesday and also conduct an interview with the BET network.

The President has made decrying Mr Trump as a threat to democracy and the nation’s founding values a centrepiece of his campaign. He had to soften that message after the shooting, but plans to use the trip to highlight what his campaign calls stark contrasts between himself and Mr Trump.

In addition to hoping to defuse some of the Republican criticism coming from Milwaukee, the campaign hopes the trip could help Mr Biden reclaim his standing among some Democrats who are still sceptical over whether he can withstand the rigours of the campaign.