Joe Biden’s withdrawal injects uncertainty into foreign policy challenges

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential race injects greater uncertainty into the world at a time when western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, a more assertive China in Asia and the rise of the far right in Europe.

After his announcement, messages of support and gratitude for his years of service poured in from near and far.

During a five-decade career in politics, he has developed extensive personal relationships with multiple foreign leaders that none of the potential replacements on the Democratic ticket can match.

– Israel

With Vice President Kamala Harris being eyed as a potential replacement for Mr Biden, Israelis are scrambling to understand what her candidacy would mean for their country as it faces increasing global isolation over its military campaign against Hamas.

Israel’s left-wing Haaretz daily newspaper ran a story scrutinising Ms Harris’s record of support for Israel, pointing to her reputation as Mr Biden’s “bad cop” who has vocally admonished Israel for its offensive in Gaza.

In recent months, she has gone further than Mr Biden in calling for a ceasefire, denouncing Israel’s invasion of Rafah and expressing horror over the civilian death toll in Gaza.

“With Biden leaving, Israel has lost perhaps the last Zionist president,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “A new Democratic candidate will upend the dynamic.”

Mr Biden’s defence of Israel since Hamas’s October 7 attack has its roots in his half-century of support for the country as a senator, vice president and president. Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant thanked him for his “unwavering support of Israel over the years”.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog praised Mr Biden as a “symbol of the unbreakable bond between our two peoples” and a “true ally of the Jewish people”.

– Ukraine

Any Democratic candidate would be likely to continue Mr Biden’s legacy of military support for Ukraine, but frustration has grown in Ukraine and Europe over the slow pace of US aid and restrictions on the use of western weapons.

“Most Europeans realise that Ukraine is increasingly going to be their burden,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, a research institute. “Everyone is trying to get ready for all the possible outcomes.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he respected the “tough but strong decision” by Mr Biden to drop out of the campaign, and thanked him for his help “in preventing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from occupying our country”.

Mr Trump has promised to end Russia’s war on Ukraine in one day if he is elected — a prospect that has raised fears in Ukraine that Russia might be allowed to keep the territory it occupies.

His vice presidential pick, JD Vance, is among Congress’s most vocal opponents of US aid for Ukraine and has further raised the stakes for Kyiv.

– China

In recent months, both Mr Biden and Mr Trump have tried to show voters who can best stand up to Beijing’s growing military strength and belligerence and protect US businesses and workers from low-priced Chinese imports. Mr Biden has hiked tariffs on electric vehicles from China, and Mr Trump has promised to implement tariffs of 60% on all Chinese products.

Mr Trump’s America First doctrine exacerbated tensions with Beijing, but disputes with the geopolitical rival and economic colossus over wars, trade, technology and security continued into Mr Biden’s term.

China’s official reaction to the presidential race has been careful.

“The US elections are US internal politics. I have no comment on this,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

The official Xinhua news agency treated the story of Mr Biden’s decision as relatively minor.

– Iran

With Tehran’s proxies across the Middle East increasingly entangled in the Israel-Hamas war, the US faces a region in disarray.

Hamas, which also receives support from Iran, continues to fight Israel nine months into a war that has killed 38,000 Palestinians and displaced over 80% of Gaza’s population.

The US and its allies have accused Iran of expanding its nuclear programme and enriching uranium to an unprecedented 60% level, near-weapons-grade levels.

After then-president Trump withdrew from Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers in 2018, Mr Biden said he wanted to reverse his predecessor’s hawkish anti-Iran stance, but the administration has maintained severe economic sanctions against Tehran and overseen failed attempts to renegotiate the agreement.

The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi — the supreme leader’s hardline protege — in a helicopter crash vaulted a new reformist to the presidency in Iran, generating new opportunities and risks. Masoud Pezeshkian has said he wants to help Iran open up to the world but has maintained a defiant tone against the US.

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani brushed off Mr Biden’s withdrawal, saying: “To us, the coming and going of governments and persons on top of the US administration is not important on its own. What can change the atmosphere of relations is a fundamental change in this hostile policy against the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

– Europe and Nato

Many Europeans were happy to see Mr Trump go after his years of disparaging the EU and undermining Nato. His dismissive attitude towards European allies in last month’s presidential debate did nothing to ease those concerns.

Mr Biden has supported close US relations with bloc leaders.

After his decision to bow out of the race, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called his choice “probably the most difficult one in your life”. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he respected the “decision based on what he believes is in the best interests of the American people”.

The question of whether Nato can maintain its momentum in supporting Ukraine and checking the ambitions of other authoritarian states hangs in the balance of this presidential election, analysts say.

“They don’t want to see Donald Trump as president. So there’s quite a bit of relief but also quite a bit of nervousness” about Mr Biden’s decision to drop out, said Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Like many in the United States, but perhaps more so, they are really quite confused.”

– Mexico

The close relationship between Mexico and the US has been marked in recent years by disagreements over trade, energy and climate change. Since President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took power in 2018, both countries have found common ground on migration, with Mexico making it more difficult for migrants to cross its country to the US border and Washington not pressing on other issues.

The Lopez Obrador administration kept that policy while Mr Trump was president and continued it into Mr Biden’s term.

On Friday, Mexico’s president called Mr Trump “a friend” and said he would write to him to warn against pledging to close the border or blaming migrants for bringing drugs into the US.

“I am going to prove to him that migrants don’t carry drugs to the United States,” he said, adding that “closing the border won’t solve anything, and anyway, it can’t be done”.