Japan’s ruling party braces for blow in lower house election

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s conservative ruling party is braced for a blow to its comfortable majority in elections to the lower house of parliament amid public rage over financial scandals and discontent over a stagnant economy.

The results could weaken Mr Ishiba’s grip on power, possibly leading Japan into political uncertainty, though a change of government is not expected.

Mr Ishiba took office on October 1, replacing his predecessor Fumio Kishida who resigned after failing to pacify the public over widespread slush fund practices among Liberal Democratic Party politicians.

Mr Ishiba immediately ordered a snap election in a bid to shore up support by using his outspoken, reformist image.

Mr Ishiba has set a goal of retaining 233 seats for the ruling coalition between the LDP and its Buddhist-backed junior partner Komeito, a majority in the 465-member lower house – the more powerful of Japan’s two-chamber parliament.

In his final speeches on Saturday in Tokyo, Mr Ishiba apologised over his party’s mishandling of funds and pledged “to restart as an equal, fair, humble and honest party”.

He said only the LDP’s ruling coalition can responsibly run Japan with its experience and dependable policies.

Once a popular politician known for his criticism of even his own party’s policies, Mr Ishiba has also seen support for his weeks-old cabinet plunge.

The biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is led by centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda – who briefly served as prime minister during the LDP’s 2009-12 descent from power.

Mr Noda’s party is expected to make significant gains. He has said Sunday’s election is a rare chance for a change of government, which will be the most effective political reform, though his party has trouble finding other opposition groups with which to co-operate.

A 77-year-old man said his biggest concern is rising prices and wondered if the LDP should win despite the wrongdoings. Another resident in her 60s said she would vote in the hope of making a change.

Analysts suggest Mr Ishiba could fall short of reaching his seat target, though his LDP is expected to remain the top party in Japan’s parliament as voters are sceptical about the opposition’s ability and inexperience.

Losing a majority would mean Mr Ishiba would have difficulty establishing policies and could face calls from within his party for a replacement ahead of next summer’s election in the upper house, experts say.