Azerbaijan mourns for Kazakhstan plane crash victims amid claims of Russian role

Azerbaijan has observed a nationwide day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured as speculation mounted about the possible cause.

The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 was en route from the capital Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in Chechnya on Wednesday when it was diverted for unknown reasons and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after flying east across the Caspian Sea.

The plane went down about two miles from Aktau. Footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground in a fireball.

As the official investigation started, theories abounded about a possible cause, with some commentators alleging that holes in the plane’s tail section possibly indicate it could have come under fire from Russian air defence systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities did not report it.

On Thursday, national flags were lowered across Azerbaijan, traffic across the country stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide moment of silence.

Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but added: “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing.”

According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.

Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s air space and airports for risks, said analysis of fragments of the crashed plane indicate with a 90-99% probability that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the UK, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defence system”. Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after western airlines halted flights during the war.

Osprey chief executive Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defence systems in Russia during the war.

Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website, claimed that the airliner was fired on by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defence system as it was approaching Grozny.

It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the drone attack on Wednesday and why they did not allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.

Asked about claims that the plane had been fired on by air defence assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict”.

Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker Maulen Ashimbayev warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defence fire as unfounded and “unethical”.

Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine.