Supply chain problems could be prolonged – States

The warning is set out in an updated Brexit guide for business published by the States, which considers potential scenarios when the transition periods ends on 31 December.

These include a UK-EU deal, an agreement that the Bailiwick is not part of, and a no deal, which is described as a ‘no further negotiated outcome’.

‘It is not anticipated that there will be an overall shortage of food in the UK or onward to Guernsey but due to the potential for disruption within the supply chains, certain product lines may be limited,’ said the document.

‘This will be particularly relevant for certain types of fresh and short shelf-life foods, as supplies may be subject to border delays.’

Bad weather at this time of year could also ‘exacerbate’ any potential disruption. It all meant ‘certain items may be delayed and therefore in temporary short supply’.

‘It is important to note that the disruption of supply on certain food lines may not simply be related to the supply of that particular product line, but could be related to supply issues of other critical ingredients, chemicals or packaging. With the potential increase in demand, price increases may occur.’

Urging business to prepare, the document said Guernsey had built-in resilience to minor supply chain disruption due to being an island economy.

But it warned ‘this must not lead to complacency, particularly given the potential for concurrent risks, including the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic’.

‘It is anticipated that delays to supply chains could manifest in a similar manner where some items which are routinely available in all sectors may not be available or subject to delay for a period of time. The disruption experienced as a result of the end of the transition period may be prolonged.’

The States continued to work closely with all stakeholders locally and in the UK to ensure any disruption was kept to a minimum, added the guide.

This has included working with shipping companies, logistics agents, the International Port of Portsmouth – the critical route through which supplies flow – and Hampshire County Council to prioritise trucks carrying goods bound for the Channel Islands to mitigate potential freight congestion elsewhere in the UK, such as the Dover Straits route to mainland Europe.

The document offered a reassuring message.

‘It is important to note that the islands are working closely with business partners and are not anticipating any concerns with food or medical supplies and in the event that unforeseen circumstances arise, advanced mitigation plans are in place.’

But it also said: ‘The States of Guernsey cannot guarantee continued supply and therefore we ask businesses to closely analyse their operations to identify any areas of concern with the aim of mitigating these prior to the end of the transition period.’

These include the type of imported and exported goods – beyond the supply chain – to identify product lines that may be in short supply in the event of disruption.

‘Businesses that rely on the use of chemicals and packaging are advised to consider maintaining stock levels over the winter,’ said the guide.

Firms should also analyse where goods may be delayed, to consider alternative routes where possible or ensure stock levels of essential goods are maintained to cover the period immediately following the end of the transition period.

n Further information at https://gov.gg/brexit.